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Big Fed rate hikes ahead, amid early signs hot inflation is peaking

30 Tháng Tư 2022
Big Fed rate hikes ahead, amid early signs hot inflation is peaking © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The Federal Reserve building is seen before the Federal Reserve board is expected to signal plans to raise interest rates in March as it focuses on fighting inflation in Washington, U.S., January 26, 2022. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts/File Phot

By Lindsay (NYSE:LNN) Dunsmuir and Ann Saphir

(Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers look set to deliver a series of aggressive interest rate hikes at least until the summer to deal with hot inflation and surging labor costs, even as two reports Friday showed tentative signs both may be cresting.

Sharply higher food and gas prices lifted overall inflation to a new 40-year high of 6.6% in March, data from the Commerce Department showed. At more than triple the Fed's target, hot inflation is why the central bank is widely expected to ramp up the pace of rate hikes with a half-point increase at each of its next three meetings, and continue raising rates through the end of the year.

Contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate now show heavy bets on interest rates rising to a range of 3%-3.25% by the end of the year, putting borrowing costs well into territory U.S. central bankers believe will put the brakes on growth.

But the inflation measure tracked most closely by the central bank as a signal of underlying price pressures, known as the core personal consumption expenditures price index, slowed slightly to 5.2% in March, from 5.3% the prior month. The report, from the Commerce Department, also contained fresh evidence of a long-awaited shift toward spending on services that Fed policymakers hope will also ease upward price pressure, as spending on durable goods declined.

Meanwhile a separate report showed employers jacked up benefits to attract workers, accelerating the pace of employment cost increases to 4.5% and underscoring the Fed's view that the labor market is extremely and perhaps unhealthily tight. But private wage growth leveled off, at 5%.

The reports "won't stop the Fed from hiking by 50bp next week, but it supports our view that inflation will fall a little more quickly this year than Fed officials now appear to expect," said Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

The Fed, and particularly its chief, Jerome Powell, is taking nothing for granted after being burned several times over the past two years in its assessment of inflation pressures that refused to wane as predicted.

"We want to see actual progress on inflation," Powell said just over a week ago, citing another round of possible sustained upward inflation pressures caused by the war in Ukraine and recent COVID-19 lockdowns in China prolonging supply chain issues. "It may be that the actual peak was in March but we don't know that and so we're not going to count on it."

At its policymaking meeting next week, the Fed is set to raise interest rates by a bigger-than-usual half percentage point next Wednesday as it seeks to tamp down overall demand that has far exceeded supply in both labor and goods. It is also set to give the nod to starting the process of reducing its asset holdings as another way to tighten financial conditions.

Some analysts took no comfort from either of Friday's reports, noting that the continued rise in overall labor costs keeps fears of a wage-price spiral in play.

"These readings – which are showing no sign of easing - will be of concern to policymakers as they make decisions about monetary policy in an environment where the labor market is tight, and prices are at a 40-year high," wrote HFE's Rubeela Farooqi.

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28-05-2022 02:13:32 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.0732↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2627↑ Buy
 USD/JPY127.06↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7156↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2723↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY136.35Neutral
 EUR/CHF1.0277Neutral
 Gold1,851.67↑ Buy
 Silver22.117↑ Buy
 Copper4.3205↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI114.92↑ Buy
 Brent Oil115.38Buy
 Natural Gas8.720Sell
 US Coffee C228.65↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,808.86↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,143.96↑ Buy
 DAX14,462.19↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,585.46Sell
 Hang Seng20,697.36↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,883.50↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,933.60↑ Buy
 BASF51.110Neutral
 Bayer66.58↑ Buy
 Allianz200.20↑ Buy
 Adidas179.96↑ Buy
 Lufthansa6.881↑ Buy
 Siemens AG121.86Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG10.392↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,830/ 6,940
(0/ 0) # 1,716
SJC HCM6,855/ 6,955
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SJC Hanoi6,855/ 6,957
(0/ 0) # 1,733
SJC Danang6,855/ 6,957
(0/ 0) # 1,733
SJC Nhatrang6,855/ 6,957
(0/ 0) # 1,733
SJC Cantho6,855/ 6,957
(0/ 0) # 1,733
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KRW15,9119,38
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