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Asia stocks rally, dollar restrained before inflation test

12 Tháng Chín 2022
Asia stocks rally, dollar restrained before inflation test © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A man wearing a protective mask is reflected on an electronic board displaying stock prices outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, September 29, 2021. REUTERS/Issei Kato

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian share markets rallied on Monday on hopes a key reading on U.S. inflation will show some cooling, while the U.S. dollar was restrained by the risk of higher European interest rates and Japanese intervention.

Holidays in China and South Korea made for slow trading, while traders were unsure what implications Ukraine's surprising success against Russian forces might have.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.5%, having bounced modestly from a two-year low hit last week. Japan's Nikkei added another 1.1%, after rallying 2% last week.

Chinese blue chips firmed 1.3% ahead of retail and industry data due later in the week that may show some improvement in August after a disappointing July.

Wall Street looked to extend Friday's bounce and S&P 500 futures edged up 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.2%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures gained 0.7% and FTSE futures 0.3%.

Bulls are hoping Tuesday's reading on U.S. consumer prices will hint at a peak for inflation as falling petrol prices are seen pulling down the headline index by 0.1%, according to a Reuters poll.

The core is forecast to rise 0.3%, though some analysts see a chance of a softer report.

"Arguably, with the economy having contracted through the first half, and household discretionary spending capacity under significant pressure, we are due a modest downside surprise," said economists at Westpac.

"As such, we forecast +0.2% for core and -0.2% for headline," they added. "If achieved though, it should not be assumed that October and beyond will see repeats, with volatility likely to persist."

A soft number might revive speculation the Federal Reserve will only hike by 50 basis points this month, though it would likely have to be very weak to have a real impact given how stridently hawkish policymakers have been recently.

The market currently implies an 88% chance the Fed will hike by 75 basis points.

BofA global economist Ethan Harris fears that by focusing on actual inflation to determine when to stop, central banks may go too far. The bank has lifted its target for the federal funds rate to a range of 4.0-4.25%, with a 75bp hike in September and smaller rises thereafter.

"For investors, this means more pressure on interest rates, more weakness in risk assets and further upside for the super-strong dollar," said Harris.

"In our view, these trends only turn when markets price the full fury of central bank hikes and we are not quite there yet."

DOLLAR NOT DONE YET

For now, the dollar has run into some profit taking from a market that is very long the currency after a month of sustained gains.

So rapidly has the dollar risen on the yen that Japanese authorities are becoming increasingly vocal in protesting their currency's decline, sparking speculation of intervention and putting pressure on the Bank of Japan to moderate its policy of yield curve control.

Japan's government must take steps as needed to counter excessive declines in the yen, a senior government official said on Sunday, after it hit its weakest level against the dollar in 24 years.

That was enough to see the dollar hold at 142.74 yen and off last week's top of 144.99.

The dollar index stood at 108.820, having reached as high as 110.790 last week.

The euro nudged up 0.5% to $1.0086, and away from its recent trough of $0.9865.

It was helped in part by a Reuters report that European Central Bank policymakers see a growing risk that they will have to raise their key interest rate to 2% or more to curb record-high inflation despite a likely recession.

Analysts at ANZ noted the dollar over the past month was up roughly 9% against the euro and the Chinese yuan, 12% against the British pound and 19% against the yen.

"The rampant USD is causing strain in developing countries, which are finding imports priced in USD more expensive," they said in a note.

"With Fed speakers using every opportunity to hammer home a hawkish message and quantitative tightening looming, the USD is not about to dramatically turn."

The ascent of the dollar combined with high bond yields has been a drag for gold, which was hovering at $1,714 an ounce after hitting a low of $1,690 last week. [GOL/]

Oil prices have also been trending lower amid concerns about a global economic slowdown, though cuts to supply did prompt a 4% bounce on Friday. [O/R]

Early Monday, Brent was down $1.29 at $91.55, while U.S. crude shed $1.28 to $85.51 per barrel.

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27-09-2022 14:08:44 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9646

+0.0040 (+0.42%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

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EUR/USD

0.9646

+0.0040 (+0.42%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

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GBP/USD

1.0784

+0.0100 (+0.94%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

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Indicators:

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USD/JPY

144.29

-0.47 (-0.32%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

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AUD/USD

0.6498

+0.0044 (+0.68%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

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Indicators:

Buy (3)

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USD/CAD

1.3665

-0.0067 (-0.49%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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EUR/JPY

139.18

+0.14 (+0.10%)

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↑ Sell

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EUR/CHF

0.9531

-0.0010 (-0.11%)

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Gold Futures

1,646.70

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Silver Futures

18.672

+0.192 (+1.04%)

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Copper Futures

3.3305

+0.0372 (+1.13%)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

77.65

+0.94 (+1.23%)

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Brent Oil Futures

83.82

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Natural Gas Futures

7.149

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US Coffee C Futures

222.48

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,365.85

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S&P 500

3,655.04

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DAX

12,336.42

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FTSE 100

7,033.25

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17,787.00

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US Small Cap 2000

1,664.34

-11.83 (-0.71%)

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IBEX 35

7,560.53

+52.03 (+0.69%)

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BASF SE NA O.N.

40.390

+0.580 (+1.46%)

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Bayer AG NA

49.15

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166.67

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Adidas AG

128.66

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.838

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Siemens AG Class N

100.14

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8.537

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 EUR/USD0.9646Sell
 GBP/USD1.0784Neutral
 USD/JPY144.29Neutral
 AUD/USD0.6498Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3665↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY139.18↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9531↑ Sell
 Gold1,646.70↑ Buy
 Silver18.672↑ Buy
 Copper3.3305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI77.65↑ Sell
 Brent Oil83.82↑ Sell
 Natural Gas7.149Neutral
 US Coffee C222.48↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,365.85↑ Buy
 S&P 5003,655.04↑ Sell
 DAX12,336.42↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,033.25↑ Buy
 Hang Seng17,787.00Neutral
 Small Cap 20001,664.34↑ Buy
 IBEX 357,560.53↑ Buy
 BASF40.390↑ Sell
 Bayer49.15↑ Sell
 Allianz166.67↑ Sell
 Adidas128.66↑ Sell
 Lufthansa5.838Neutral
 Siemens AG100.14↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG8.537↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,520/ 6,600
(-30/ -30) # 1,888
SJC HCM6,510/ 6,590
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SJC Hanoi6,510/ 6,592
(-50/ -50) # 1,879
SJC Danang6,510/ 6,592
(-50/ -50) # 1,879
SJC Nhatrang6,510/ 6,592
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SJC Cantho6,510/ 6,592
(-50/ -50) # 1,879
Cập nhật 27-09-2022 14:08:46
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,636.87+8.910.55%
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ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V23.26023.720
RON 95-III22.58023.030
E5 RON 92-II21.78022.210
DO 0.05S22.53022.980
DO 0,001S-V24.51025.000
Dầu hỏa 2-K22.44022.880
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$77.54-1.04-1.36%
Brent$83.91-1.33-1.62%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.560,0023.870,00
EUR22.265,3423.511,65
GBP24.894,1725.955,20
JPY159,88169,26
KRW14,3517,49
Cập nhật lúc 12:49:10 27/09/2022
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