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Analysts See Near-Term Downside Risk for Stocks

By Senad Karaahmetovic Berenberg strategists Edward Abbott and Jonathan Stubbs see a growing risk that may facilitate the next leg lower in the U.S. stock market. While the recent...
Analysts See Near-Term Downside Risk for Stocks © Reuters. Analysts See Near-term Downside Risk for Stocks

By Senad Karaahmetovic

Berenberg strategists Edward Abbott and Jonathan Stubbs see a growing risk that may facilitate the next leg lower in the U.S. stock market.

While the recent struggles have been attributed to inflation, tightening, and geopolitical risks, Wall Street analysts are growing more vocal about the earnings estimates cuts that are likely coming.

“Our 12-month forward EPS net upgrade analysis also indicates the S&P 500 and FTSE 350 are close to entering net downgrade territory for only the fourth time in the past 35 years. Analyst estimates are moderating and we expect this to continue over the coming months,” analysts wrote in a client note.

Abbott and Stubbs pay special attention to margin compression that is likely coming. They see a 15-20% drop in earnings on a YoY basis.

“Analysis of previous earnings cycles going back to the 1970s suggests equity markets trough 75% of the way through the earnings downturn (global data). Given our view that we are still early in a likely prolonged earnings downturn, we think it is too early to take unhedged upside equity market risk.”

Net-net, Berenberg analysts urge investors to focus on portfolios that “combine resilient earnings with a secure yield pick-up over the market.”

While Goldman Sachs strategist Cecilia Mariotti says that the current rally in stocks could be further underpinned by a new increase in positioning in the near term, the analyst also sees mounting downside risks.

“Without clear signs of a positive shift in macro momentum, temporary re-risking could actually increase risks of another leg lower in the market rather than signal the end of the bear market. This is particularly the case if the positive shift is driven by the systematic community and not by fundamental investors,” Mariotti wrote in a client note.

Mariotti is also worried that the market still hasn’t seen the “true” through in positioning.

“We think the path from here is likely to become more dependent on macroeconomic data,” the GS strategist concluded.

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10-08-2022 21:11:59 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0337

+0.0126 (+1.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0337

+0.0126 (+1.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2240

+0.0159 (+1.32%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

132.30

-2.83 (-2.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

AUD/USD

0.7084

+0.0120 (+1.72%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

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USD/CAD

1.2792

-0.0096 (-0.74%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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EUR/JPY

136.75

-1.23 (-0.89%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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EUR/CHF

0.9721

-0.0015 (-0.15%)

Summary

Sell

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Indicators:

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Gold Futures

1,813.95

+1.65 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Silver Futures

20.712

+0.230 (+1.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Copper Futures

3.6433

+0.0578 (+1.61%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

88.71

-1.79 (-1.98%)

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↑ Sell

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Brent Oil Futures

94.45

-1.86 (-1.93%)

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Natural Gas Futures

7.882

+0.049 (+0.63%)

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↑ Buy

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US Coffee C Futures

219.90

+7.15 (+3.36%)

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,742.95

+27.58 (+0.74%)

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S&P 500

4,192.70

+70.23 (+1.70%)

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↑ Buy

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DAX

13,666.30

+131.33 (+0.97%)

Summary

Neutral

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FTSE 100

7,502.50

+14.35 (+0.19%)

Summary

Neutral

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Indicators:

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Hang Seng

19,610.84

-392.60 (-1.96%)

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US Small Cap 2000

1,951.20

+42.19 (+2.21%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,337.63

+25.73 (+0.31%)

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↑ Sell

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BASF SE NA O.N.

44.403

+0.408 (+0.93%)

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Bayer AG NA

51.87

-0.29 (-0.56%)

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↑ Sell

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

178.46

-0.10 (-0.06%)

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↑ Sell

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Adidas AG

172.03

+3.03 (+1.79%)

Summary

Buy

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.576

+0.003 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Siemens AG Class N

108.77

+2.25 (+2.11%)

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Deutsche Bank AG

8.830

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↑ Buy

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Sell (1)

 EUR/USD1.0337↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2240↑ Buy
 USD/JPY132.30↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7084↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2792↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY136.75↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9721Sell
 Gold1,813.95↑ Buy
 Silver20.712↑ Buy
 Copper3.6433↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI88.71↑ Sell
 Brent Oil94.45↑ Sell
 Natural Gas7.882↑ Buy
 US Coffee C219.90↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,742.95↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,192.70↑ Buy
 DAX13,666.30Neutral
 FTSE 1007,502.50Neutral
 Hang Seng19,610.84↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,951.20↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,337.63↑ Sell
 BASF44.403↑ Buy
 Bayer51.87↑ Sell
 Allianz178.46↑ Sell
 Adidas172.03Buy
 Lufthansa6.576↑ Sell
 Siemens AG108.77↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG8.830↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,600/ 6,700
(-20/ -20) # 1,624
SJC HCM6,600/ 6,700
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SJC Hanoi6,600/ 6,702
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SJC Danang6,600/ 6,702
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SJC Nhatrang6,600/ 6,702
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