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Altria Upgraded at Morgan Stanley on Price Dip, PT Lowered Following Juul Ban

By Vlad Schepkov Morgan Stanley analyst Pamela Kaufman upgraded Altria Group (NYSE:MO) to “Equal-weight” rating from “Underweight” citing recent underperformance and a more...
Altria Upgraded at Morgan Stanley on Price Dip, PT Lowered Following Juul Ban © Reuters. Altria (MO) Upgraded at Morgan Stanley on Price Dip, PT Lowered Following JUUL Ban

By Vlad Schepkov

Morgan Stanley analyst Pamela Kaufman upgraded Altria Group (NYSE:MO) to “Equal-weight” rating from “Underweight” citing recent underperformance and a more “balanced risk-reward” but cut the price target to $43 from $47 following the FDA’s ban on Juul's line of products.

The analyst comments that despite persisting concerns over "MO's fundamentals and long-term structural positioning”, the recent sharp pullback – the stock is down over 21% in June alone, vs an 8% drop in the S&P 500 – means “the market is more appropriately pricing in our concerns."

She thus sees the current lower valuation, having contracted "from 8.6x to 7.3x NTM EV/EBITDA (11% below MO's 3 year average," as more compelling and offering a “more balanced risk-reward” – and cites the underperformance as a key reason behind rating upgrade.

The analyst also weighed in on by far the biggest issue surrounding the company in recent days – the FDA’s marketing denial order of the popular Juul line of products.

On that front, she notes that, unlike other companies who usually kept selling products while appealing denial orders, “JUUL may have a harder time remaining on the shelf given the FDA's toxicological concerns and the agency's indication that it may take enforcement action against retailers/distributors who continue to sell.”

To account for the risk, Morgan Stanley chose to "eliminate JUUL from our base case, reflect increasing investment needs behind RRPs, and greater long-term risk around MO's growth outlook", and lower the Price Target to $43 from $47.

Shares of MO closed at $42.51 yesterday, in line with the analyst’s expectations.

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30-06-2022 20:35:02 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

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EUR/USD

1.0419

-0.0019 (-0.19%)

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GBP/USD

1.2159

+0.0034 (+0.28%)

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USD/JPY

135.82

-0.76 (-0.56%)

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AUD/USD

0.6912

+0.0031 (+0.45%)

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1.2897

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141.51

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0.9954

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1,821.85

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3,430.55

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1,694.00

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167.41

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8.215

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 EUR/USD1.0419↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2159↑ Buy
 USD/JPY135.82↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6912Buy
 USD/CAD1.2897↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY141.51Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9954↑ Sell
 Gold1,821.85↑ Buy
 Silver20.573↑ Buy
 Copper3.7182↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI108.02↑ Sell
 Brent Oil110.93↑ Sell
 Natural Gas6.552↑ Buy
 US Coffee C229.53↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,430.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5003,767.83↑ Sell
 DAX12,670.16↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,141.00↑ Sell
 Hang Seng21,859.79Sell
 Small Cap 20001,694.00↑ Sell
 IBEX 358,013.29↑ Sell
 BASF40.070↑ Buy
 Bayer56.46Buy
 Allianz180.69↑ Buy
 Adidas167.41↑ Buy
 Lufthansa5.380↑ Sell
 Siemens AG97.15↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG8.215Buy
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SJC Eximbank6,810/ 6,870
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