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Yen at its weakest in 50 years in real terms - J.P. Morgan

Thursday, January 6, 2022
Yen at its weakest in 50 years in real terms - J.P. Morgan © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A Japan Yen note is seen in this illustration photo taken June 1, 2017. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration

By Kevin Buckland

TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen's real effective rate has tumbled to its lowest level in 50 years and the currency is set to fall even further, slashing Japanese consumers' spending power and raising the risk of capital flight, J.P. Morgan analysts said.

The yen was weakest of G10 currencies last year and its underperformance has continued into 2022 with the nominal exchange rate against the dollar tumbling to a five-year low of 116.3550 this week. It is also near two-month lows to the euro and sterling.

The yen's real effective rate, referenced to consumer price inflation, fell to a low of 66.3 on Tuesday compared to a base of 100 in 2010, which according to J.P. Morgan calculations is likely its lowest since June 1972. The rate measures the weighted average of domestic prices relative to those of Japan's trading partners.

Analysts Tohru Sasaki, Benjamin Shatil and Sosuke Nakamura noted a strong inverse correlation between U.S. long-term interest rates and the yen. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was at a nine-month high of 1.7192% on Thursday and J.P. Morgan predicts that the 10-year yield could reach 2% by end-June. If the current correlation holds, the yen could drop past 119 per dollar then, it said.

With companies from sauce manufacturers to stationery makers announcing price hikes in recent months, "the risk of an unexpectedly large rise in Japan's inflation rate cannot be ruled out," they wrote.

Considering that Japanese salaries are no longer high relative to other developed nations, fears that imported goods will become unaffordable may prompt Japanese households to invest offshore - easier than ever before due to online services, they said, which would lead to further yen weakness.

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16-01-2022 23:27:28 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1419

+0.0005 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.1419

+0.0005 (+0.04%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

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GBP/USD

1.3680

+0.0008 (+0.05%)

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Buy

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USD/JPY

114.43

+0.22 (+0.20%)

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↑ Buy

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AUD/USD

0.7211

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USD/CAD

1.2537

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EUR/JPY

130.66

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EUR/CHF

1.0440

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Gold Futures

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Silver Futures

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Brent Oil Futures

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US Coffee C Futures

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Euro Stoxx 50

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S&P 500

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DAX

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FTSE 100

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24,227.43

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US Small Cap 2000

2,161.48

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IBEX 35

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Adidas AG

252.35

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.241

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Siemens AG Class N

145.86

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11.954

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 EUR/USD1.1419↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.3680Buy
 USD/JPY114.43↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7211Sell
 USD/CAD1.2537Sell
 EUR/JPY130.66↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0440↑ Buy
 Gold1,818.75Neutral
 Silver23.027↑ Buy
 Copper4.4245↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI83.50↑ Sell
 Brent Oil86.16Neutral
 Natural Gas4.328↑ Sell
 US Coffee C239.65↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,272.19Buy
 S&P 5004,662.85↑ Buy
 DAX15,883.24↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,542.95Sell
 Hang Seng24,227.43↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,161.48↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,806.60↑ Buy
 BASF68.110Sell
 Bayer52.59↑ Sell
 Allianz227.00↑ Sell
 Adidas252.35Buy
 Lufthansa7.241↑ Buy
 Siemens AG145.86Neutral
 Deutsche Bank AG11.954Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,115/ 6,155
(-5/ -5) # 1,148
SJC HCM6,110/ 6,170
(10/ 0) # 1,163
SJC Hanoi6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,165
SJC Danang6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,165
SJC Nhatrang6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,165
SJC Cantho6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,165
Cập nhật 16-01-2022 23:27:32
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RON 95-IV2400024480
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E5 RON 92-II2291023360
DO 0.05S1838018740
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Dầu hỏa1719017530
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Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD22.540,0022.850,00
EUR25.234,8826.649,42
GBP30.246,4531.537,99
JPY192,66203,94
KRW16,5020,10
Cập nhật lúc 11:20:58 17/01/2022
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