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World stocks eye 1% weekly loss, U.S. yield curve indicates recession

Saturday, November 19, 2022
World stocks eye 1% weekly loss, U.S. yield curve indicates recession © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A passerby walks past an electric monitor displaying the graph of recent movements on Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar in Tokyo, Japan, October 20, 2022. REUTERS/Issei Kato
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By Carolyn Cohn and Wayne Cole

LONDON/SYDNEY (Reuters) - World stocks were heading on Friday for a 1% loss on the week, drifting from recent two-month highs after U.S. Federal Reserve officials fired more warning shots on interest rates, while the U.S. bond yield curve priced for a recession.

The dollar and bond yields rose after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said interest rates might need to hit a range from 5-5.25% from the current level of just below 4.00% to be "sufficiently restrictive" to curb inflation.

That was a blow to investors who had been wagering rates would peak at 5% and saw Fed fund futures sell off as markets priced in more chance that rates would now top out at 5-5.25%, rather than 4.75-5.0%.

"The Fed has come back through their speeches and pushed back against the market narrative -- we are not going to see a pivot," said Arun Sai, senior multi-asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management.

Sai said the market was currently "running on fumes" and would switch focus to the real economy's response to rising rates, such as anecodatal signs of slowdown in the U.S. labour market.

The MSCI world equities index edged up 0.17% while U.S. S&P futures were steady after the S&P 500 index dipped 0.3% on Thursday.

European stocks gained 0.54%, with banks rising nearly 1% as the European Central Bank gears up to start the biggest withdrawal of cash from the euro zone's banking system in its history.

Banks are expected to repay about 500 bln euros in Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO) loans. The ECB's announcement is expected at 1105 GMT.

Britain's FTSE gained 0.33%, a day after finance minister Jeremy Hunt announced tax rises and spending cuts in an effort to reassure markets that the government was serious about fighting inflation.

British retail sales staged only a partial rebound last month after shops closed in September for the funeral of Queen Elizabeth, data showed on Friday, and they remained below their pre-pandemic level as soaring inflation hit spending power.

"Although the Bank of England is likely to continue hiking rates despite a slowdown in the economy, their peak will likely be lower than in the U.S.,” said Dean Turner, chief euro zone and UK economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.

U.S. two-year yields crept back up to 4.48%, retracing a little of last week's sharp inflation-driven drop of 33 basis points to a low of 4.29%.

That left them 69 basis points above 10-year yields, the largest inversion since 1981 and an indicator of impending recession. [US/]

The dollar was flat at 106.65 on a basket of currencies, after touching a three-month trough of 105.30 early in the week.

The U.S. currency was steady at 140.23 yen, but held above its recent low of 137.67. Sterling rose 0.3% to $1.1904.

The euro held at $1.0357, having eased from a four-month peak of $1.0481 hit on Tuesday as some policymakers argued for caution on tightening.

ECB President Christine Lagarde will give a keynote speech later on Friday that may offer guidance on which way the majority at the bank may lean.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was steady.

Chinese blue chips dropped 0.45% amid reports that Beijing had asked banks to check liquidity in the bond market after soaring yields caused losses for some investors.

There were also concerns that a surge in COVID-19 cases in China would challenge plans to ease strict movement curbs that have throttled the economy.

Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.1% as data showed inflation running at a 40-year high as a weak yen stoked import costs.

Still, the Bank of Japan argues that inflation is mostly driven by energy costs outside of its control and that the economy needs continued super-easy policies.

Brent crude hit four-week lows on concerns about weakening demand in China and further interest rate rises by the Fed. [O/R]

Brent hit a low of $89.51 per barrel, down 0.2%. U.S. crude was steady at $81.67 a barrel. [O/R]

Gold gained 0.1% to $1,763 an ounce after hitting a three-month high of $1,786 early in the week. [GOL/]

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02-12-2022 20:05:15 (UTC+7)

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1.0537

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0.6819

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    EUR/USD 1.0537 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2279 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 134.13 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6819 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3431 Neutral  
    EUR/JPY 141.32 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9835 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,813.00 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 22.960 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.8060 Neutral  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.92 Neutral  
    Brent Oil 87.61 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 6.694 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 163.23 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,994.25 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,076.57 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 14,572.95 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,547.90 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 18,675.35 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,884.57 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 8,411.43 Neutral  
    BASF 48.583 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 55.12 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 203.20 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 125.48 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 7.731 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 134.65 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 9.978 ↑ Buy  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,600/ 6,670
(-40/ -40) # 1,414
SJC HCM6,620/ 6,700
(-15/ -15) # 1,444
SJC Hanoi6,620/ 6,702
(-15/ -15) # 1,446
SJC Danang6,620/ 6,702
(-15/ -15) # 1,446
SJC Nhatrang6,620/ 6,702
(-15/ -15) # 1,446
SJC Cantho6,620/ 6,702
(-15/ -15) # 1,446
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$1,799.45 -2.99 -0.17%
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Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V23.83024.300
RON 95-III22.70023.150
E5 RON 92-II21.67022.100
DO 0.05S23.21023.670
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Dầu hỏa 2-K23.56024.030
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Brent $87.50 -0.44 -0.51%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.930,0024.240,00
EUR24.695,6126.077,28
GBP28.769,6729.995,10
JPY174,05184,25
KRW16,0519,55
Cập nhật lúc 18:54:05 02/12/2022
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