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U.S. dollar has peaked due to softer inflation, jobs -Barclays, Deutsche

Thursday, November 17, 2022
U.S. dollar has peaked due to softer inflation, jobs -Barclays, Deutsche © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. one hundred dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration taken in Seoul February 7, 2011. REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won/File Photo
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar may have already seen its highest levels for the year given growing evidence of slowing inflation and a weakening labor market in the world's largest economy, Barclays (LON:BARC) and Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) wrote in research notes on Wednesday.

Apart from domestic factors, Barclays said the improving European energy supply and demand situation as well as China's reopening expectations are good enough reasons to unwind some of the risk premium that has supported the dollar this year.

Barclays has advanced the downturn in the dollar into the fourth quarter this year, from its previous forecast of the first quarter of 2023.

Since late September, the dollar index has fallen about 8%.

The British bank has also revised its end-2022 forecast for euro/dollar to $1.03, from its previous estimate of $0.97.

"The upside risk to the EUR consists of sufficiently improved gas and oil supplies so that the possibility of shortages is no longer a risk factor constraining production," Barclays said, adding that peace or a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war would be a further boost.

Deutsche, on the other hand, expects the euro to end the year at $1.05.

That said, the German bank noted it still expects a choppy market for the dollar, with one major issue: the extent and speed of U.S. disinflation, or an overall slowing of the rise in overall prices.

"For a big dollar downtrend to kick off, we really need more confidence that U.S. inflation – and by extension Fed Fund pricing - is sustainably coming down," wrote Deutsche.

Deutsche is tracking the shape of the U.S. yield curve to determine where the dollar is headed. The bank said the U.S. 5-year/30-year yield curve needs to steepen aggressively to start a big dollar downtrend.

That curve has steepened since late September, with the spread currently at 4.4 basis points.

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0.0016 (0.15%)

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EUR/USD

1.0538

0.0016 (0.15%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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134.07

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    EUR/USD 1.0538 Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2284 Sell  
    USD/JPY 134.07 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6818 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3433 Buy  
    EUR/JPY 141.28 Neutral  
    EUR/CHF 0.9838 Neutral  
    Gold 1,811.95 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 22.863 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 3.8060 Neutral  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.85 ↑ Buy  
    Brent Oil 87.44 Sell  
    Natural Gas 6.729 Sell  
    US Coffee C 163.60 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,990.05 Neutral  
    S&P 500 4,076.57 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 14,555.95 Neutral  
    FTSE 100 7,542.18 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 18,675.35 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,884.57 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 8,402.69 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 48.510 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 54.99 Neutral  
    Allianz 202.97 Neutral  
    Adidas 125.49 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 7.733 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 134.59 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 9.958 ↑ Sell  
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