net_left adver left

The case for a "soft" Fed landing may finally be taking hold

Thursday, November 17, 2022
The case for a © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An eagle tops the U.S. Federal Reserve building's facade in Washington, July 31, 2013. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
let atwWrapper,atwContainerWidth,atwSliderBox,atwTotalWidth; function initATWSlider() { atwWrapper = $('.relatedInstruments'); atwSliderBox = atwWrapper.find('.slider'); atwContainerWidth = atwWrapper.width(); atwTotalWidth = atwSliderBox.width(); if(window.domainId === '2' || window.domainId === '3'){ atwWrapper.find('.sliderRight').addClass('js-slider-prev'); atwWrapper.find('.sliderLeft').addClass('js-slider-next'); } else { atwWrapper.find('.sliderRight').addClass('js-slider-next'); atwWrapper.find('.sliderLeft').addClass('js-slider-prev'); } if(atwSliderBox.find('.instrumentBox').length > 6){ atwWrapper.find('.js-slider-next').fadeIn(600); } } function atwMoveRight() { atwWrapper.find('.js-slider-prev').fadeIn(150); $(".slider > :visible:first").hide(150) $(".slider > :visible:last").next().show(150); if(!$(".slider > :visible:last").next().find('.name')()){ atwWrapper.find('.js-slider-next').fadeOut(150); return; } } function atwMoveLeft() { atwWrapper.find('.js-slider-next').fadeIn(150); $(".slider > :visible:last").hide(150); $(".slider > :visible:first").prev().show(150); if(!$(".slider > :visible:first").prev().find('.name')()){ atwWrapper.find('.js-slider-prev').fadeOut(150); return; } } initATWSlider(); //update star icon on adding/removing instrument to/from specific watchlist atwWrapper.on('click', 'label.addRow', function() { let parent = $(this).parent(); let checkedPortfolio = false; parent.find('input[type=checkbox]').each(function () { if($(this).is(':checked')){ checkedPortfolio = true; } }); let closestStar = $(this).closest('.addToPortWrapper').find('.star'); if(checkedPortfolio){ closestStar.addClass('added'); }else{ closestStar.removeClass('added'); } }); //update star icon on creating new watchlist atwWrapper.find('.js-create-watchlist-portfolio').find('a.js-create').on('click',function () { let parent = $(this).parent(); let watchlistName = parent.find('input[type=text]').val(); if(!watchlistName){ return; } let star = $(this).closest('.addToPortWrapper').find('.star'); star.addClass('added'); }); //update star icon on adding new position atwWrapper.find('.js-create-holdings-portfolio').find('.js-submit').on('click',function () { let addPositionForm = $(this).closest('.addToPortfolioPop').find('.holdingsContent'); let amount = addPositionForm.find('.js-amount').val(); if(amount < 1){ return; } let star = $(this).closest('.addToPortWrapper').find('.star'); star.addClass('added'); }); atwWrapper.find('.instrumentBox').find('.shortInfo').on('click',function () { if(!window.ga){ return; } let pairId = $(this).parent().find('.js-add-to-portfolio').attr('data-pair-id'); let pairType = window.atwPairTypes[pairId]; window.ga('allSitesTracker.send', 'event', 'content', 'symbol link clicked', '', { "dimension147":"symbol_link_clicked", "dimension163":"click", "dimension148":"symbol", "dimension162":"content add to watchlist", "dimension161":"article page", "dimension142":"article", "dimension75":pairType, "dimension138":pairId, "dimension118":"2945606" }); window.open($(this).attr('data-href')); }); window.atwPairTypes = {"166":"indice","266":"Equities","6435":"Equities"};

By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Accumulating evidence that prices are slowing, alongside signs of stretched consumer finances and even the recent layoffs in the technology sector, may bolster faith the U.S. economy can escape the current surge of inflation without a major downturn.

Fed officials emphasized this week they intend to keep raising interest rates for now, though perhaps at a slower pace, until it is clear the recent turn lower in inflation becomes a trend and broadens throughout the array of goods and services.

But after more than a year of being surprised by higher-than-expected inflation, pressure may now be building in the other direction - allowing the Fed to move less aggressively with any further rate increases.

On Tuesday investors boosted bets the Fed would raise rates only half a percentage point at its Dec. 13-14 meeting after new data showed that prices paid by U.S. businesses, a gauge of future consumer costs, rose less than expected in October, with some key components registering a month-over-month decline.

That came on the heels of last week's report that October consumer prices rose less than anticipated, and Fed officials have signaled they are likely done with the three-quarter-point rate increases approved at the central bank's last four meetings.

The latest report on the Producer Price Index, which measures what businesses pay for materials, supplies, and final goods for resale, included the first drop in service prices since November 2020, along with evidence that the high profit margins earned by some suppliers during the pandemic are falling.

Recent announcements of mass layoffs at high-profile tech firms like Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) , meanwhile, far from showing a crack in the broad labor market, may instead be evidence of a healthy shift away from some of the pandemic era's excesses, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) economists Joseph Briggs and Ronnie Walker wrote.

Fed officials argue it will be hard for U.S. inflation to ease until the current high demand for workers falls into line with the number of people willing to work - an adjustment that may have begun across the tech firms that were major winners during the peak pandemic months when consumers shopped from home and employees tooled up home-based offices.

"Tech companies may have over-extrapolated the rapid growth they experienced during the pandemic and are now correcting for over-hiring," the Goldman economists wrote. "Tech layoffs are therefore an unfortunate side effect of the growth slowdown and tighter financial conditions necessary to rebalance the broader labor market, but for now appear narrowly concentrated."

Job growth through October remained strong but was moderating from its pre-pandemic highs, and Fed officials said they saw some initial signs that wage growth was beginning to cool.

CURBING DEMAND

Fed officials are trying to walk the line between tightening financial conditions in the economy enough to slow inflation without going so far it causes a recession.

Part of the challenge is anticipating how the Fed's rate hikes so far will influence future behavior.

New data from the New York Federal Reserve gave a hint that, even as consumer spending has remained relatively strong, consumer finances may be getting stretched by rising prices.

Credit card balances jumped 15% in the three months from July though September compared with a year earlier, and the share of accounts in delinquency increased, though from a low rate.

Among some demographic groups credit card borrowing has now returned to pre-pandemic levels, reversing the broad paydown of debt seen in 2020 and a possible sign that the cash balances that have sustained consumer demand may be running out for some households.

Curbing demand is one aim of Fed rate increases that have come at the fastest pace in 40 years on the expectation that less consumption will translate into less inflation.

A separate New York Fed survey showed an unanticipated jump in manufacturing in November, but also a drop in new orders that may indicate companies anticipating less demand ahead.

'GREAT MARGIN RECOMPRESSION'

Still, with markets currently turning less on growth and earnings data and more on the relationship between Fed policy and inflation, signs of inflation beginning to moderate has led equity markets to surge.

The S&P 500 (SPX) since mid-October has regained about two-thirds the 16% decline in value triggered in late August when Fed chair Jerome Powell gave a blunt speech about the economic pain the Fed was willing to inflict on the economy in order to tame inflation.

If October proves a turning point, there may be less of it rather than more.

The October drop in margins evident in Tuesday's PPI data in particular is something economists and Fed officials have anticipated as supply chains eased, inventories grew, and demand waned in the face of tighter Fed monetary policy - all setting the stage for tougher price competition.

"You'd actually expect more competitive pressure to start bringing those costs down," Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said Monday at a Bloomberg event. "It's a process that you would expect at this point in the cycle. I'm certainly looking at that closely. And of course, that would contribute to disinflation."

"The Great Margin Recompression...is now clearly underway. It has much further to run," after months in which supply chain difficulties gave businesses unusual pricing power, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson wrote on Monday in anticipation of Tuesday's data showing wholesale cost pressures easing.

Leave your comment
HOT AUTO TRADE BOT SOFTWARE adver right
APPROVED BROKERS
net_home_top HOT AUTO TRADE BOT SOFTWARE
28-11-2022 11:11:26 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0353

-0.0042 (-0.40%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

EUR/USD

1.0353

-0.0042 (-0.40%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

GBP/USD

1.2045

-0.0048 (-0.40%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

USD/JPY

138.68

-0.41 (-0.30%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

AUD/USD

0.6692

-0.0057 (-0.84%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.3445

+0.0067 (+0.50%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

EUR/JPY

143.57

-1.02 (-0.71%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

EUR/CHF

0.9808

-0.0018 (-0.18%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Gold Futures

1,749.30

-4.70 (-0.27%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Silver Futures

21.242

-0.188 (-0.88%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

Copper Futures

3.5645

-0.0660 (-1.82%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

74.09

-2.19 (-2.87%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Brent Oil Futures

81.31

-2.40 (-2.87%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Natural Gas Futures

7.268

-0.062 (-0.85%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

US Coffee C Futures

164.40

+1.65 (+1.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,962.41

+0.42 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

S&P 500

4,026.12

-1.14 (-0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

DAX

14,541.38

+1.82 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

FTSE 100

7,486.67

+20.07 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

17,248.15

-325.43 (-1.85%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

1,869.19

+6.37 (+0.34%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

IBEX 35

8,416.60

+37.20 (+0.00%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

49.605

-0.280 (-0.56%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Bayer AG NA

55.45

-0.06 (-0.11%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

205.35

+0.40 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

123.98

-2.68 (-2.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.567

+0.036 (+0.48%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Siemens AG Class N

132.06

+1.10 (+0.84%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.390

+0.020 (+0.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

    EUR/USD 1.0353 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2045 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 138.68 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6692 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3445 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 143.57 Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 Buy  
    Gold 1,749.30 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 21.242 Sell  
    Copper 3.5645 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 74.09 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 81.31 Neutral  
    Natural Gas 7.268 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 164.40 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,962.41 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,026.12 Neutral  
    DAX 14,541.38 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,486.67 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 17,248.15 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,869.19 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 8,416.60 Sell  
    BASF 49.605 Neutral  
    Bayer 55.45 Sell  
    Allianz 205.35 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 123.98 Neutral  
    Lufthansa 7.567 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 132.06 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 10.390 ↑ Buy  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,640/ 6,710
(6,640/ 6,710) # 1,473
SJC HCM6,655/ 6,735
(-5/ -25) # 1,498
SJC Hanoi6,655/ 6,737
(-5/ -25) # 1,500
SJC Danang6,655/ 6,737
(-5/ -25) # 1,500
SJC Nhatrang6,655/ 6,737
(-5/ -25) # 1,500
SJC Cantho6,655/ 6,737
(-5/ -25) # 1,500
Cập nhật 28-11-2022 11:11:29
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,749.78 -4.59 -0.26%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V24.91025.400
RON 95-III23.78024.250
E5 RON 92-II22.67023.120
DO 0.05S24.80025.290
DO 0,001S-V26.78027.310
Dầu hỏa 2-K24.64025.130
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI $74.11 +2 2.63%
Brent $81.28 +2.16 2.59%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD24.580,0024.850,00
EUR24.959,9426.355,23
GBP29.041,9330.277,62
JPY173,62183,79
KRW15,9719,46
Cập nhật lúc 10:13:17 28/11/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
adver main right