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Take Five: Earnings, yields and COVID-19

Friday, January 7, 2022
Take Five: Earnings, yields and COVID-19 © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Employees wearing face masks work at a factory of the component maker SMC during a government organised tour of its facility following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Beijing, China May 13, 2020. REUTERS/Thomas Peter

It didn't take long for speedbumps to appear as markets rev up for 2022. Rising U.S. Treasury yields, sparked by growing speculation the Federal Reserve could start its rate hike cycle as early as March have doused early enthusiasm, just as the U.S. earnings season is about to kick off.

And unrest in Kazakhstan has put geopolitical risks back on the agenda, while China battles to keep its zero COVID strategy on track ahead of the Winter Olympics.

Here's your week ahead in markets from Tom Westbrook in Singapore, Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Dhara Ranasinghe , Tom Wilson https:// and Karin Strohecker in London.

1/QUARTERLY CHECK UP

Massive profit increases from U.S. companies helped fuel last year's 27% gain in the S&P 500. As the earnings season kicks off in coming days, companies will likely have a difficult time posting similar numbers for the fourth quarter.

Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to jump 22.3%, according to Refinitiv IBES -- a robust increase, though a lower clip than in the first, second and third quarters.

Big Wall Street banks JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup (NYSE:C) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) will be first in line to report. Investors are keen to hear about inflation, whether companies believe the supply chain bottlenecks that helped drive prices up last year will ease in coming months and forecasts for 2022. S&P 500 profit growth is expected to slow to 8.4% from 49.7% in 2021.

For a related graphic on S&P 500 overall corporate results, click https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-STOCKS/RESULTS/mopanwjmjva/chart.png

2/HOW HIGH?

The first week of trading in 2022 has been anything but dull for the world's biggest bond markets. Short-dated Treasury yields shot up to highs not seen since early 2020, 10-year yields are up over 20 bps, Germany's -0.06% Bund yield is lurching closer to 0% and sovereign borrowing costs from Britain to Australia are at multi-month highs.

The message is clear: tighter monetary policy is likely sooner than anticipated, with the United States leading the way. Until data or central bank speak contradicts this, 10-year Treasury yields could reach the 2% milestone soon.

Investors will also keep a close on real yields since a view that inflation-adjusted yields will remain low has fueled the risk asset rally . The first week's 30 bps jump in U.S. real yields may not make for a happy new year for some.

For a related graphic on U.S. Treasury yields shoot up at start of 2022, click https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xmpjobrbqvr/themejan7.png

3/NEW YEAR, OLD RULES

For millions in China the new year began as the old ended - under lockdown . COVID-19 cases are few, particularly of the Omicron variant, but restrictions are spreading fast as authorities keep a zero-tolerance policy before next month's Winter Olympics.

Xian is more than two weeks into a lockdown and harsh rules are rolling out across central China. All 400,000 residents of Yongji, in Shanxi Province, were ordered to remain indoors this week after the virus was detected on a railway turnstile.

The measures could render moot any further easing of zooming producer prices in December data due on Wednesday, especially if they trigger fresh supply-chain disruption around the world.

4/KAZAKHSTAN AND BEYOND

Deadly protests in Kazakhstan - the worst violence in its 30 years of independence - have added to the list of flare ups in the region being felt well beyond its borders.

Once again, Russia plays a key role. The Kremlin deploying troops is widely seen as a gamble to secure its interests in the oil and uranium-producing Central Asian nation.

Reverberations are felt throughout commodity markets and weighed on the rouble as Russia finds itself again in the limelight -- tensions over Ukraine have loomed large over its markets. The outcome of unrest in Kazakhstan is yet unclear, but markets will have to sift through the fallout for geopolitical risk and diplomatic alignments for some time to come.

For a related graphic on Protests in Kazakhstan, click https://graphics.reuters.com/KAZAKHSTAN-PROTESTS/zjvqknwrwvx/chart.png

5/BITCOIN HANGOVER

After a wild 2021, bitcoin's new year hangover has lingered into the first week of 2022 - and might get worse.

The computing power of its network dropped sharply this week as Kazakhstan's internet was shut down during its uprising, hitting its cryptocurrency mining industry - the second biggest in the world.

The drop in bitcoin "hashrate" might, in theory, hit its price. The more miners on the network, the greater the amount of computing power needed to mine new bitcoin. If miners drop off the network, it becomes easier for the remaining miners to produce new coins - in theory boosting supply.

Bitcoin has fallen below $41,000 to its lowest since late September with hawkish signs from the Fed adding to the malaise. Some see it slipping further into the $30,000-range. Crypto investors will be searching for signs bitcoin can get off the ropes.

For a related graphic, click https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zgpomanwxpd/Bitcoin%20volatility.PNG

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17-01-2022 00:02:52 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1420

+0.0006 (+0.05%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.1420

+0.0006 (+0.05%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.3679

+0.0006 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

USD/JPY

114.42

+0.22 (+0.19%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

AUD/USD

0.7207

0.0001 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

USD/CAD

1.2541

-0.0013 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

130.66

+0.31 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

EUR/CHF

1.0442

+0.0013 (+0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Gold Futures

1,818.70

+2.20 (+0.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

23.032

+0.114 (+0.50%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Copper Futures

4.4225

-0.0055 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

83.53

+0.23 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

86.19

+0.13 (+0.15%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

Natural Gas Futures

4.298

+0.075 (+1.78%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

US Coffee C Futures

239.65

+2.65 (+1.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,272.19

-43.71 (-1.01%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

S&P 500

4,662.85

+3.82 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

DAX

15,883.24

-148.35 (-0.93%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

FTSE 100

7,542.95

-20.90 (-0.28%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Hang Seng

24,198.50

-184.82 (-0.76%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

US Small Cap 2000

2,161.48

+2.05 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,806.60

-10.30 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

68.110

+0.360 (+0.53%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Bayer AG NA

52.59

+1.53 (+3.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

227.00

-0.40 (-0.18%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Adidas AG

252.35

-3.85 (-1.50%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.241

-0.043 (-0.59%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

145.86

-5.64 (-3.72%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Deutsche Bank AG

11.954

-0.246 (-2.02%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

 EUR/USD1.1420Sell
 GBP/USD1.3679↑ Sell
 USD/JPY114.42↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7207↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2541↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY130.66↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF1.0442↑ Buy
 Gold1,818.70Neutral
 Silver23.032Neutral
 Copper4.4225↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI83.53↑ Buy
 Brent Oil86.19Buy
 Natural Gas4.298↑ Sell
 US Coffee C239.65↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,272.19Buy
 S&P 5004,662.85↑ Buy
 DAX15,883.24↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,542.95Sell
 Hang Seng24,198.50↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20002,161.48↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,806.60↑ Buy
 BASF68.110Sell
 Bayer52.59↑ Sell
 Allianz227.00↑ Sell
 Adidas252.35Buy
 Lufthansa7.241↑ Buy
 Siemens AG145.86Neutral
 Deutsche Bank AG11.954Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,115/ 6,155
(-5/ -5) # 1,147
SJC HCM6,110/ 6,170
(10/ 0) # 1,162
SJC Hanoi6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,164
SJC Danang6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,164
SJC Nhatrang6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,164
SJC Cantho6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,164
Cập nhật 17-01-2022 00:02:54
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,819.53+1.820.10%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-IV2400024480
RON 95-II,III2390024370
E5 RON 92-II2291023360
DO 0.05S1838018740
DO 0,001S-V1873019100
Dầu hỏa1719017530
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$83.46+0.380.45%
Brent$85.62+0.420.49%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD22.540,0022.850,00
EUR25.234,8826.649,42
GBP30.246,4531.537,99
JPY192,66203,94
KRW16,5020,10
Cập nhật lúc 11:55:43 17/01/2022
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