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Take Five: A central bank bonanza

Saturday, April 30, 2022
Take Five: A central bank bonanza © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The Federal Reserve Board building on Constitution Avenue is pictured in Washington, U.S., March 27, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

(Reuters) - Some big beasts of the central banking world take centre stage over the coming week, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia holding policy meetings.

A read-out on China's economic health is due as well, while an unprecedented Russian sovereign debt default looms.

And did anyone say dollar?

Here's a look at the week ahead in markets from Tom Westbrook in Singapore, Ira Iosebashvili in New York, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sujata Rao and Karin Strohecker in London.

1/THE HAWKS FLY

Increasingly hawkish Fed rhetoric has sparked nasty sell-offs in stock and bond markets, and on Wednesday we will see just how aggressive the central bank plans to get over coming months.

The Fed has flagged a 50 basis-point interest rate rise on May 4, and investors expect a hefty 240 bps of monetary tightening in 2022. Many reckon the Fed will continue to surprise on the hawkish side, as it fights to tamp down the worst inflation in four decades. [L2N2WK2GX]

Markets will also focus on the Fed's plans for its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, which it could start unwinding as early as May.

Graphic: Fed & stocks - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gkplgkbayvb/Pasted%20image%201651081055454.png

2/FOUR IN A ROW

The Bank of England's meeting, a day after the Fed, is tipped to lift interest rates for a fourth time in a row, the first time it would have done that since 1997.

BoE boss Andrew Bailey says the bank is treading a "very tight line" between curbing inflation, which at 7% is more than three times its target, and avoiding a recession.

A quarter point hike to 1% would meet a precondition for the BoE to start actively selling bonds it holds. A big question for markets is when these sales will start; estimates range from June to well into 2023.

Active bond sales would tighten monetary conditions but could hurt a faltering economy and no major central bank has yet started the process.

Graphic: Bank of England gilt holdings - https://graphics.reuters.com/BRITAIN-BOE/klvykldlzvg/chart.png

3/DOLLAR THE DESTROYER

April is said to be the cruellest month and it's certainly been so for anyone on the wrong side of the dollar trade.

A 5% rise in the dollar index, driven by safe-haven flows and an uber-hawkish Fed, has triggered big falls in the euro and yen, as well as emerging market currencies, led by the yuan.

The moves are tightening global financial conditions, which can cause economic growth to slow. Companies in Japan, Germany and elsewhere face higher import costs for dollar-priced materials and components.

Some past Fed tightening cycles weakened the U.S. currency once they kicked off. This time though, comparisons are being drawn with 1994 when 300 bps of rate rises lifted the dollar index 4.6% (following a 10.5% jump in 1993). Those moves were blamed for subsequent waves of emerging market crises.

Graphic: The unstoppable dollar? - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lgvdwgxydpo/USD2904.PNG

4/CHINA TO AUSTRALIA

The yuan, down 4% this month, may have further to fall if weekend data shows Chinese factory activity still weakening.

Beijing, for now at least, seems to see the yuan as its main policy lever, much to the disappointment of stock markets which had hoped for more explicit government help or for a loosening of harsh COVID lockdown rules. China's slowdown has also applied a discount at the quarry - pushing the Aussie dollar down some 4.5% through April.

With recent data showing Australian first-quarter inflation at 20-year highs, anticipation is building that a hiking cycle could begin as soon as Tuesday. Swaps pricing and several economists reckon a 15 bps rate hike is likely.

Graphic: Yuan, Aussie tumble as growth clouds gather - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/mopanowxrva/Pasted%20image%201651136333241.png

GAS & DEFAULT

Moscow has upped the ante in its standoff with Western capitals over payments for gas shipments. It has cut gas to Poland and Bulgaria after they refused to accept its demand for payments in roubles rather than euros.

The European Commission has warned that rouble payments could breach sanctions, but officials are still struggling to clarify the European Union stance on Moscow's payments scheme.

The elephant in the room is Germany - Russian gas comprises around a third of its total gas use, so the economy could slip into recession if supplies are cut.

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking down on Russia to make a payment on its sovereign bonds which had been due April 4. Failure to pay within a 30-day grace period would tip it into default.

Graphic: Russia's roubles gas payment - https://graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/jnvwerljnvw/graphic.jpg

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22-05-2022 12:02:53 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0562

-0.0024 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0562

-0.0024 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2489

+0.0029 (+0.23%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

USD/JPY

127.86

+0.07 (+0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

AUD/USD

0.7039

-0.0008 (-0.11%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.2839

+0.0014 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

135.05

-0.24 (-0.18%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

EUR/CHF

1.0296

-0.0005 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Gold Futures

1,845.10

+3.90 (+0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

21.765

-0.143 (-0.65%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Copper Futures

4.3042

+0.0212 (+0.49%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

110.35

+0.46 (+0.42%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Brent Oil Futures

112.91

+0.87 (+0.78%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Natural Gas Futures

8.058

-0.250 (-3.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

US Coffee C Futures

216.48

-2.22 (-1.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,657.03

+16.48 (+0.45%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

S&P 500

3,901.36

+0.57 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

13,981.91

+99.61 (+0.72%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,389.98

+87.24 (+1.19%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Hang Seng

20,717.24

+596.56 (+2.96%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

US Small Cap 2000

1,773.27

-2.96 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,484.50

+78.50 (+0.93%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

BASF SE NA O.N.

48.850

-0.010 (-0.02%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

63.74

+0.34 (+0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

195.58

+0.78 (+0.40%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

172.80

+0.92 (+0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.852

+0.049 (+0.72%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Siemens AG Class N

115.08

+2.62 (+2.33%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Deutsche Bank AG

9.362

-0.130 (-1.37%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

 EUR/USD1.0562↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2489Neutral
 USD/JPY127.86Neutral
 AUD/USD0.7039Sell
 USD/CAD1.2839↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY135.05Neutral
 EUR/CHF1.0296↑ Buy
 Gold1,845.10↑ Buy
 Silver21.765↑ Sell
 Copper4.3042↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI110.35↑ Sell
 Brent Oil112.91↑ Sell
 Natural Gas8.058↑ Sell
 US Coffee C216.48↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,657.03↑ Buy
 S&P 5003,901.36↑ Buy
 DAX13,981.91Buy
 FTSE 1007,389.98Neutral
 Hang Seng20,717.24↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,773.27↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,484.50Neutral
 BASF48.850Buy
 Bayer63.74Buy
 Allianz195.58Buy
 Adidas172.80Buy
 Lufthansa6.852↑ Sell
 Siemens AG115.08Neutral
 Deutsche Bank AG9.362Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,875/ 6,975
(6,875/ 6,975) # 1,795
SJC HCM6,895/ 6,985
(0/ 0) # 1,800
SJC Hanoi6,895/ 6,987
(0/ 0) # 1,802
SJC Danang6,895/ 6,987
(0/ 0) # 1,802
SJC Nhatrang6,895/ 6,987
(0/ 0) # 1,802
SJC Cantho6,895/ 6,987
(0/ 0) # 1,802
Cập nhật 22-05-2022 12:02:55
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RON 95-V30.58031.190
RON 95-III29.98030.570
E5 RON 92-II28.95029.520
DO 0.05S26.65027.180
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$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.000,0023.310,00
EUR23.879,5425.217,23
GBP28.128,1029.328,16
JPY176,49186,84
KRW15,8019,26
Cập nhật lúc 11:59:55 22/05/2022
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