Speculators' long Brazil real positions near record high, CFTC data shows

20 Tháng Bảy 2021
Speculators' long Brazil real positions near record high, CFTC data shows © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Brazilian Real and U.S. dollar notes are pictured at a currency exchange office in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in this September 10, 2015 photo illustration. REUTERS/Ricardo Moraes

By Jamie McGeever

BRASILIA (Reuters) - Funds and speculators on U.S. futures markets are their most bullish on the Brazilian real in more than four years, data showed, attracted to the currency by the recent surge in 2021 interest rate and economic growth expectations.

The near-record positioning, however, suggests the real will struggle to rally further from here, as the supportive growth outlook and rate differentials have already been factored into its price, analysts say.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission data late on Friday showed that funds increased their aggregate net long real position to 22,220 contracts in the week ended July 13 from 21,305 contracts the week before.

That is the largest net long position since late February 2017 and close to the high of 26,050 contracts from the same month, a record since the CFTC Brazilian real contract was launched in 2011.

To go long a financial asset is to effectively bet that it will rise in value, and to go short is the opposite.

Graphic: Brazil real positioning -CFTC https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xlbvgqqdwvq/CFTCBRL.png

Strategists at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reckon the real is starting to look expensive.

"We maintain a preference for BRL over the other regional currencies, but we note that heavier positioning is likely to magnify the currency's sensitivity to increasing political noise, so we remain sidelined," they wrote in a note on Sunday.

The real rallied through the 5.00-per-dollar level late last month from close to 6.00 per dollar in March, but has since pulled back. On Monday morning it was changing hands at 5.18 per dollar.

Economists increased their 2021 economic growth and interest rate forecasts to 5.3% and 6.75%, respectively, according to a weekly central bank survey on Monday.

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24-07-2021 17:42:41 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/JPY130.16↑ Buy
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 Gold1,801.90↑ Sell
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 Copper4.4553Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI72.17↑ Buy
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 US Coffee C191.88↑ Buy
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 FTSE 1007,027.58Neutral
 Hang Seng27,284.87Neutral
 Small Cap 20002,209.41↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,717.20↑ Sell
 BASF67.030Neutral
 Bayer51.20↑ Buy
 Allianz210.50↑ Buy
 Adidas317.70↑ Buy
 Lufthansa9.849↑ Sell
 Siemens AG134.65↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG10.590↑ Buy
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