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  4. Selling Into Further Strength is Justified, Citi Tells Clients
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Selling Into Further Strength is Justified, Citi Tells Clients

By Senad Karaahmetovic Citi is growing increasingly cautious about U.S. stocks after the S&P 500 rallied to exceed the bank’s 4200 year-end targets. The magnitude of the ongoing...
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Selling Into Further Strength is Justified, Citi Tells Clients © Reuters. Selling Into Further Strength is Justified, Citi Tells Clients

By Senad Karaahmetovic

Citi is growing increasingly cautious about U.S. stocks after the S&P 500 rallied to exceed the bank’s 4200 year-end targets.

The magnitude of the ongoing relief rally, as well as the earnings risk, create “a valuation headwind”.

“Further upside would most likely be driven by repositioning, a function of investor bearishness headed into this recent move,” Citi U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert told clients in a note.

However, Chronert also believes it is “justified” to sell into the further strength at an index level.

“We think the risk/reward becomes skewed to the downside as 1H23 recession risk means lower earnings and, thus, higher multiples,” the strategist added.

At this point, the strategist sees a higher chance of a 1H23 recession than a soft-landing scenario. Citi sees the S&P 500 at 3650 in case of a mild recession and 4700 if the Fed manages to deliver a soft landing.

“Tactically, selling further strength aligns with our index target. Alternatively, our preferred approach is to focus incrementally on sector/stock positioning. Here, we lean toward growth, with an emphasis on quality and structural fundamental tailwinds,” Chronert concluded.

The S&P 500 closed at $4,305.20 yesterday.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

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 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
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 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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SJC Eximbank8,300/ 8,500
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RON 95-V25.44025.940
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KRW15,9219,31
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