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Positive Second-Quarter US Growth Chances Improve on Trade Data

Thursday, July 28, 2022
Positive Second-Quarter US Growth Chances Improve on Trade Data © Bloomberg. The Port of Oakland in Oakland, California, US, on Thursday, July 14, 2022. Truckers servicing some of the US's busiest ports are staging protests as state-level labor rules that change their employment status begin to go into effect, creating another choke point in stressed US supply chains.

(Bloomberg) -- Fresh economic data Wednesday reduced the odds that the US will report two straight quarters of a contracting economy and avert what is commonly regarded as a recession in much of the world.

Several economists, including those at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS)., boosted their estimates for second-quarter gross domestic product after a pair of government reports showed firmer durable-goods shipments, a narrower trade deficit and gains in inventories last month.

Economists expect gross domestic product grew an annualized 0.4% in the April to June period, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey. The economy contracted 1.6% in the first quarter and several had predicted another negative print, which would fit the definition of a technical recession.

Read more: US Economy Seen Narrowly Averting Back-to-Back Contractions

The US merchandise trade deficit narrowed for a third month in June, reflecting both an increase in exports and a drop in imports, according to data from the Commerce Department on Wednesday. The report also showed firm advances in inventories at retailers and wholesalers.

A separate report showed bookings for durable goods -- items meant to last at least three years -- increased 1.9% in June after a 0.8% advance a month earlier. Core capital-goods shipments, a figure that is used to help calculate equipment investment in the government’s gross domestic product report, increased 0.7% in June after a 1% surge a month earlier. The figures, however, aren’t adjusted for inflation.

“Stronger data today in the advance goods trade report and wholesale inventories lifted our tracking from 0.1% to 1.0%, lowering the risk of 2Q data marking a technical recession,” Morgan Stanley economists said in a note.

Bloomberg Economics also revised its second-quarter GDP forecast from a slight negative to a small positive print due to better-than-expected net trade and inventories data in June.

“Still, after the first quarter’s decline, flagging momentum leaves the economy vulnerable to further adverse shocks such as a potential energy crisis in Europe or intensified supply strains in the second half of the year,” Bloomberg economists Eliza Winger and Yelena Shulyatyeva said in a note. “The risk that the US will slide into a downturn later this year has risen.”

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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19-08-2022 16:02:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0089

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0089

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.1896

-0.0034 (-0.29%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

136.46

+0.58 (+0.43%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

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AUD/USD

0.6910

-0.0008 (-0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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USD/CAD

1.2976

+0.0029 (+0.22%)

Summary

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EUR/JPY

137.68

+0.60 (+0.44%)

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EUR/CHF

0.9659

+0.0006 (+0.07%)

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Gold Futures

1,767.25

-3.95 (-0.22%)

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Silver Futures

19.148

-0.316 (-1.62%)

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Copper Futures

3.6225

-0.0090 (-0.25%)

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Neutral

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

89.27

-1.23 (-1.36%)

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Neutral

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95.27

-1.32 (-1.37%)

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9.078

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US Coffee C Futures

216.25

+1.45 (+0.68%)

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,746.85

-30.53 (-0.81%)

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4,283.74

+9.70 (+0.23%)

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7,530.01

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19,773.03

+9.12 (+0.05%)

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Neutral

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2,000.73

+13.41 (+0.68%)

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8,346.30

-84.00 (-1.00%)

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43.278

-0.162 (-0.37%)

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53.27

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175.49

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109.26

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 EUR/USD1.0089↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.1896↑ Buy
 USD/JPY136.46↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6910↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2976↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY137.68↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9659Neutral
 Gold1,767.25Neutral
 Silver19.148Buy
 Copper3.6225Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI89.27Neutral
 Brent Oil95.27Buy
 Natural Gas9.078↑ Sell
 US Coffee C216.25↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,746.85Buy
 S&P 5004,283.74Sell
 DAX13,573.65↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,530.01↑ Buy
 Hang Seng19,773.03Neutral
 Small Cap 20002,000.73↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,346.30Neutral
 BASF43.278↑ Buy
 Bayer53.27↑ Buy
 Allianz175.49Sell
 Adidas165.87↑ Buy
 Lufthansa6.288↑ Sell
 Siemens AG109.26Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG8.584Buy
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Cập nhật 19-08-2022 16:02:19
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RON 95-V25.34025.840
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Dầu hỏa 2-K23.32023.780
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WTI$89.26+0.640.72%
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$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.235,0023.545,00
EUR22.981,7524.268,73
GBP27.175,3928.334,31
JPY167,13176,93
KRW15,2618,59
Cập nhật lúc 15:55:12 19/08/2022
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