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Oil Struggles Against Recession Fear; U.S. Crude Climbs But Brent Down

By Barani Krishnan AiVIF.com -- Oil bulls are discovering that the Russia-OPEC driven crude rally isn’t immune after all to talk of a U.S. recession. Since the Feb. 24 invasion...
Oil Struggles Against Recession Fear; U.S. Crude Climbs But Brent Down © Reuters.

By Barani Krishnan

AiVIF.com -- Oil bulls are discovering that the Russia-OPEC driven crude rally isn’t immune after all to talk of a U.S. recession.

Since the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, even in the weeks leading up to that, longs in crude have behaved as though supply disruptions are the only thing that matters to energy prices — not demand.

The presumption has shaped their indifference to any discussion on the potential impact to oil demand from the worst inflation in America in 40 years. China’s debatable actions in clamping down on new Covid breakouts in the world’s largest oil importing country had also fueled skepticism toward any selloff in oil.

This week as well, oil bulls dug their heels in as talk of demand destruction gained momentum from gasoline retailing at record highs of nearly $4.50 per gallon and diesel at well above $6 in U.S. pumps. After a two-day slide of almost 10%, crude still managed to pull back half of those losses in just one session — Wednesday.

But the laser-focus of macro investors at the same time on the Fed’s tightening actions and whether that could ultimately do the economy in returned to haunt the oil market on Thursday.

After spending the first half of the session in the negative and the second higher, the two crude benchmarks settled the day mixed and little changed. But more important perhaps was the gnawing feeling that crude longs could no longer summarily dismiss the negative impact of inflation-recession talk.

“Oil prices remain a volatile trade as the crude demand outlook grows more uncertain,” said Ed Moya, analyst at online trading platform OANDA. “Inflation remains uncomfortably high and has accelerated global growth concerns. The risk-off tone on Wall Street is leading to a much stronger U.S. dollar which is weighing on oil prices.”

New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, the benchmark for U.S. crude, settled up 42 cents, or 0.4%, at $106.13 after falling as much as $3 earlier in the session.

Brent crude, the London-traded global benchmark for oil, settled down 6 cents, or 0.01%, at $107.45 a barrel after rallying by more than $1 earlier. 

While many energy traders remain fixated over the EU’s potential ban on Russian crude, fear of disruptions from that seems to be losing momentum, Moya said.

Soaring pump prices and slowing economic growth are expected to significantly curb the demand recovery through the remainder of the year and into 2023, the International Energy Agency cautioned on Thursday.

“In this market environment, oil will struggle if China moves forward with city-wide lockdowns,” Moya said, adding that longs in crude will have to hope that summer U.S. road trips and flights and cruises hold up the demand picture.

Economists fear that the U.S. economy, finally on the path to resilience after the damage wrought by the two-year long coronavirus pandemic, could head for negative growth again from the Fed’s rate hikes.

The Producer Price Index, or PPI, which measures what retailers pay for goods at the wholesale level, rose 11% in the year to April, after an 11.2% rise in the 12 months to March, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

A day earlier, the department reported that the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, expanded 8.3% in the year to April — versus 8.5% rise in the 12 months to March — as fuel and food prices stayed near record highs.

Prior to PPI and CPI readings, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, or PCE, which is closely followed by the Fed, rose by 5.8% in the year to December and 6.6% in the 12 months to March.

The Fed, whose own tolerance for inflation is a mere 2% per year, has been alarmed by these numbers and is determined to bring the PPI, PCE and CPI  readings back to benign levels.

To do this, officials at the central bank are debating the viability of a 75-basis point interest rate hike in June, after the 50-bps and 25-bps increases at their May and March meetings, respectively. A 75-bps hike would represent the largest upward adjustment in rates since 1994.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has also indicated that a total of seven rate hikes — the maximum allowable under the central bank’s calendar of meetings this year — were on slot for 2022, and more could follow in 2023, until a return to the annual 2% inflation rate is achieved.

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24-05-2022 00:59:05 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0684

+0.0124 (+1.17%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

EUR/USD

1.0684

+0.0124 (+1.17%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

GBP/USD

1.2569

+0.0081 (+0.65%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

USD/JPY

127.85

-0.01 (-0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.7100

+0.0067 (+0.96%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

USD/CAD

1.2790

-0.0046 (-0.36%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

EUR/JPY

136.59

+1.58 (+1.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

1.0326

+0.0030 (+0.29%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

1,851.65

+9.55 (+0.52%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

21.777

+0.103 (+0.48%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

4.3340

+0.0590 (+1.38%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

109.91

-0.37 (-0.34%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Brent Oil Futures

110.23

+0.24 (+0.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Natural Gas Futures

8.698

+0.520 (+6.36%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

US Coffee C Futures

215.58

-0.27 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,708.39

+51.36 (+1.40%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

S&P 500

3,971.60

+70.24 (+1.80%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

DAX

14,175.40

+193.49 (+1.38%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,513.44

+123.46 (+1.67%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

20,470.06

-247.18 (-1.19%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

US Small Cap 2000

1,794.15

+25.80 (+1.46%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

IBEX 35

8,625.80

+141.30 (+1.67%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

49.735

+0.885 (+1.81%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

64.47

+0.73 (+1.15%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

199.38

+3.80 (+1.94%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

175.48

+2.68 (+1.55%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.903

+0.051 (+0.74%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

Siemens AG Class N

116.70

+1.62 (+1.41%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.018

+0.656 (+7.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0684Neutral
 GBP/USD1.2569Buy
 USD/JPY127.85↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7100↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2790↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY136.59↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0326↑ Buy
 Gold1,851.65↑ Buy
 Silver21.777↑ Buy
 Copper4.3340↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI109.91Sell
 Brent Oil110.23↑ Sell
 Natural Gas8.698Neutral
 US Coffee C215.58↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,708.39↑ Buy
 S&P 5003,971.60↑ Buy
 DAX14,175.40↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,513.44↑ Buy
 Hang Seng20,470.06Neutral
 Small Cap 20001,794.15↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,625.80↑ Buy
 BASF49.735↑ Buy
 Bayer64.47↑ Buy
 Allianz199.38↑ Buy
 Adidas175.48↑ Buy
 Lufthansa6.903Neutral
 Siemens AG116.70↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG10.018↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,890/ 6,990
(0/ 0) # 1,765
SJC HCM6,905/ 6,995
(0/ 0) # 1,769
SJC Hanoi6,905/ 6,997
(0/ 0) # 1,771
SJC Danang6,905/ 6,997
(0/ 0) # 1,771
SJC Nhatrang6,905/ 6,997
(0/ 0) # 1,771
SJC Cantho6,905/ 6,997
(0/ 0) # 1,771
Cập nhật 24-05-2022 00:59:07
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,852.38+6.560.36%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V31.25031.870
RON 95-III30.65031.260
E5 RON 92-II29.63030.220
DO 0.05S25.55026.060
DO 0,001S-V26.35026.870
Dầu hỏa 2-K24.40024.880
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$109.36+0.350.32%
Brent$110.63-0.09-0.08%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.005,0023.315,00
EUR23.899,8625.238,69
GBP28.277,1029.483,51
JPY176,47186,83
KRW15,8019,25
Cập nhật lúc 18:52:02 23/05/2022
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