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Oil Rally Continues, Oblivious to U.S. Fuel Pile-up

By Barani Krishnan AiVIF.com - The New Year rally in oil showed no signs of slowing on Wednesday as those long the market added another 2% to crude prices after the previous...
Oil Rally Continues, Oblivious to U.S. Fuel Pile-up © Reuters.

By Barani Krishnan

AiVIF.com - The New Year rally in oil showed no signs of slowing on Wednesday as those long the market added another 2% to crude prices after the previous day’s 4% climb.

U.S. government data, meanwhile, clearly showed a slump in demand for gasoline as the onset of winter reduced driving and the need to fill up auto tanks as much as during the recent holiday stretch. A surge in the Omicron variant of Covid also delayed plans by employers to bring workers back into offices, reducing commuting and other travel that required fuel.

Gasoline stockpiles jumped by 7.96 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, overwhelming forecasts for a growth of 2.41 million. The latest build added to the previous week’s rise of 10.13-million barrels, which already accounted for the largest weekly surge in gasoline stocks since the height of the coronavirus crisis in April 2020. EIA also shows that gasoline inventories, as a whole, are up by a net of almost 30 million barrels over the past six weeks.

Inventories of distillates, which are refined into diesel for trucks, buses, trains and ships as well as fuel for jets, also swelled more than expected for a second week in a row, rising by 2.54 million barrels against a forecast of 1.76 million. In the previous week, distillate stocks grew by 4.42 million barrels.

“It’s quite perplexing to see these sorts of fuel stockpiles, which we haven’t had for nearly two years since the worst of the coronavirus pandemic,” said John Kilduff, founding partner at New York-based energy hedge fund Again Capital. “It shows that refiners are still turning out gasoline like anything although it’s already winter, with fewer people driving, especially with Omicron cases on the rise.”

US hospitalizations due to coronavirus infections have reached a new record high, data showed on Wednesday, although the Omicron variant itself remains less lethal compared to the original Covid-19 strain and the Delta mutant of the virus.

U.S. crude stockpiles  on their own saw a stockpile drop of 4.6 million barrels last week, on top of the previous week's drop of 2.1 million. Crude stockpiles have fallen by around 23 million barrels over the past six weeks, accounting somewhat for the current balance of gasoline and distillates in the market.

The West Texas Intermediate benchmark for U.S. crude settled  Wednesday’s trade up $1.42, or 1.8%, at $82.92 per barrel. Following Tuesday’s near 4% gain, WTI is up almost 5% week-to-date and has risen nearly 16% over the past four weeks.

London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for oil, settled up 95 cents, or 1.1%, at $84.67 per barrel. Brent is up more than 3% on the week, with a net gain of around 14% over the past four weeks.

“The macro shorts in oil may be throwing in the towel in the past few days,” analyst Adam Button said in a comment posted on the ForexLive site.  “The rally in oil yesterday and today came on no-news and that's evidence of a squeeze on positioning.”

Button also said he worried about “a sustained drop in Chinese demand due to Omicron”.

“Much of the world has learned to carry on alongside the virus but more than 20 million people in China are currently in a hard lockdown,” he said. “I expect that number to grow in the coming weeks and that's something that could severely hurt physical demand. From where I stand, that's enough reason to sell oil and return to the sidelines near $85 in WTI.”

Kilduff said it was apparent that the bull narrative had gripped the market to an extent that the fuel component of oil demand was being ignored as longs stayed focused on taking crude prices to $90 a barrel or higher.

“As is the case, when the fall comes, it’ll be as hard or harder than the rally, especially if the demand isn’t backed up quickly enough by hard numbers to the projections made,” Kilduff said.

(Additional reporting by Sam Boughedda)

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16-01-2022 22:47:11 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1418

+0.0004 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.1418

+0.0004 (+0.04%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Buy (9)

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GBP/USD

1.3680

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Buy (12)

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Buy (9)

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USD/JPY

114.43

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Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

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Indicators:

Buy (5)

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AUD/USD

0.7213

+0.0006 (+0.09%)

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USD/CAD

1.2536

-0.0018 (-0.14%)

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EUR/JPY

130.67

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EUR/CHF

1.0443

+0.0014 (+0.13%)

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Gold Futures

1,818.35

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Neutral

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Silver Futures

22.992

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Copper Futures

4.4240

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Neutral

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

83.58

+0.28 (+0.34%)

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↑ Buy

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Brent Oil Futures

86.22

+0.16 (+0.19%)

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Neutral

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Natural Gas Futures

4.333

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US Coffee C Futures

239.65

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Buy (5)

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,272.19

-43.71 (-1.01%)

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Buy

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Buy (8)

Sell (1)

S&P 500

4,662.85

+3.82 (+0.08%)

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DAX

15,883.24

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FTSE 100

7,542.95

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Sell

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Hang Seng

24,238.00

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Sell

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Sell (7)

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Buy (3)

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US Small Cap 2000

2,161.48

+2.05 (+0.09%)

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IBEX 35

8,806.60

-10.30 (-0.12%)

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↑ Buy

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BASF SE NA O.N.

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Adidas AG

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Buy

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7.241

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11.954

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 EUR/USD1.1418↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.3680↑ Buy
 USD/JPY114.43Buy
 AUD/USD0.7213↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2536↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY130.67Neutral
 EUR/CHF1.0443↑ Sell
 Gold1,818.35Neutral
 Silver22.992↑ Buy
 Copper4.4240Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI83.58↑ Buy
 Brent Oil86.22Neutral
 Natural Gas4.333↑ Sell
 US Coffee C239.65↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,272.19Buy
 S&P 5004,662.85↑ Buy
 DAX15,883.24↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,542.95Sell
 Hang Seng24,238.00Sell
 Small Cap 20002,161.48↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,806.60↑ Buy
 BASF68.110Sell
 Bayer52.59↑ Sell
 Allianz227.00↑ Sell
 Adidas252.35Buy
 Lufthansa7.241↑ Buy
 Siemens AG145.86Neutral
 Deutsche Bank AG11.954Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,125/ 6,165
(5/ 5) # 1,158
SJC HCM6,115/ 6,175
(15/ 5) # 1,168
SJC Hanoi6,115/ 6,177
(15/ 5) # 1,170
SJC Danang6,115/ 6,177
(15/ 5) # 1,170
SJC Nhatrang6,115/ 6,177
(15/ 5) # 1,170
SJC Cantho6,115/ 6,177
(15/ 5) # 1,170
Cập nhật 16-01-2022 22:47:17
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,819.25+1.540.08%
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ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-IV2400024480
RON 95-II,III2390024370
E5 RON 92-II2291023360
DO 0.05S1838018740
DO 0,001S-V1873019100
Dầu hỏa1719017530
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$83.55+0.290.35%
Brent$85.69+0.360.42%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD22.540,0022.850,00
EUR25.234,8826.649,42
GBP30.246,4531.537,99
JPY192,66203,94
KRW16,5020,10
Cập nhật lúc 10:44:17 17/01/2022
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