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NY Fed survey finds reduced near-term inflation expectations in December

10 Tháng Giêng 2023
NY Fed survey finds reduced near-term inflation expectations in December © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A customer counts his cash at the register while purchasing an item at a Best Buy store in Flushing, New York March 27, 2010. REUTERS/Jessica Rinaldi

By Michael S. Derby

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. households see weaker near-term inflation and are expecting notably less spending, even as they foresee their incomes continuing to rise, the New York Federal Reserve said Monday in its December Survey of Consumer Expectations.

The bank reported that respondents to its monthly survey said they see inflation a year from now at 5%, from 5.2% in November, for the lowest reading since July 2021. Meanwhile, respondents’ expectations for inflation three years from now were unchanged at 3% while projections of inflation in five years’ time stood at 2.4%, up from 2.3% in November.

The decline in near-term inflation expectations comes as the Fed has been aggressively pushing forward with rate rises aimed at lowering some of the highest price pressure readings in decades.

Fed officials have been confident that will succeed in part because they have viewed longer-run inflation expectations data as relatively stable compared with their 2% target. Central bankers believe where inflation is expected to go exerts a strong influence on where it is now.

Respondents to the survey had discordant expectations about their outlooks for income and spending. In December, they saw future expected household income gains of 4.6%, up a touch from the month before, for the highest reading in the survey’s history.

But expected spending tumbled, falling from November’s 6.9% expected rise to 5.9% in December. “The decline was broad based across age and income groups,” the bank said in its report.

Households also expected last month that access to credit in the future would improve, as households said their present financial situation had gotten better.

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 USD/JPY150.38↑ Buy
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 USD/CAD1.3571↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY163.09↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9568↑ Buy
 Gold2,092.05↑ Sell
 Silver23.297↑ Sell
 Copper3.8723Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI80.23Neutral
 Brent Oil83.89Neutral
 Natural Gas1.883↑ Sell
 US Coffee C184.13Neutral
 Euro Stoxx 504,903.35Sell
 S&P 5005,137.08↑ Buy
 DAX17,729.05Sell
 FTSE 1007,657.72↑ Sell
 Hang Seng16,595.97↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,076.39↑ Buy
 IBEX 3510,069.05Neutral
 BASF47.425↑ Sell
 Bayer28.14↑ Sell
 Allianz251.93↑ Sell
 Adidas186.52↑ Sell
 Lufthansa7.113↑ Sell
 Siemens AG181.58↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG12.528↑ Buy
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