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Marketmind: To the inflation stations

12 Tháng Giêng 2023
Marketmind: To the inflation stations © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Customers shop at a supermarket in Guangzhou's Haizhu district, after the city announced an easing of COVID-19 curbs amid the coronavirus disease outbreak, in Guangdong province, China November 30, 2022. cnsphoto via REUTERS

By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

U.S. inflation will set off the global market fireworks on Thursday and beyond, but there are a couple of other potential rockets that could spark Asian markets into life before that - Chinese and Indian inflation data.

China, the world's second largest economy, is expected to register a second consecutive month of month-on-month consumer price declines in December, something not recorded since the first half of 2021.

Economists are forecasting a drop of 0.1% following a 0.2% fall in November, while the annual rate of inflation is expected to tick up to 1.8% from an eight-month low of 1.6%.

GRAPHIC: China CPI inflation (https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zjvqjeedzpx/ChinaCPI.jpg)

Indian CPI, meanwhile, has slowed steadily and fairly substantially in recent months. But with an economy growing much faster than China's - India's GDP is expected to expand this year by around 7% - inflation remains at a higher level.

Economists expect annual inflation of 5.9% in December, almost identical to November's 5.88%, which was the lowest since January and almost two percentage points down from the April peak.

GRAPHIC: India CPI inflation (https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xmvjkllqmpr/IndiaCPI.jpg)

Needless to say, the two central banks are at different stages of the cycle. India's has raised interest rates by 225 basis points since May to a three-year high of 6.25%, and another modest hike is expected soon. Almost alone among the world's large economies, China's eased policy last year.

But the main event of the day is the U.S. inflation report for December that lands at 8:30 a.m. Eastern (1330 GMT).

The consensus view is for the annual rate to fall to 6.5% from 7.1% in November, which would be the slowest since October 2021 and significantly down from the peak of 9.1% last June. The monthly rate of inflation is expected to be 0%.

Investors are in hopeful mood - Treasury bond yields fell on Wednesday, Wall Street and world stocks surged (again), and U.S. credit spreads are their narrowest since April.

Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

- U.S., Chinese, Indian inflation (December)

- Japan current account (November)

- Fed's Barker, Harkin and Bullard speak

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22-09-2023 19:19:27 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0650

-0.0008 (-0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

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Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0650

-0.0008 (-0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

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GBP/USD

1.2262

-0.0032 (-0.26%)

Summary

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USD/JPY

148.24

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AUD/USD

0.6454

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Summary

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USD/CAD

1.3434

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157.88

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4,210.55

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 EUR/USD1.0650↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2262Neutral
 USD/JPY148.24↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6454Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3434Buy
 EUR/JPY157.88↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9646Sell
 Gold1,945.05Sell
 Silver23.933↑ Sell
 Copper3.7215Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI90.67↑ Buy
 Brent Oil94.17↑ Buy
 Natural Gas2.652↑ Buy
 US Coffee C154.20Neutral
 Euro Stoxx 504,210.55↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,330.00↑ Sell
 DAX15,572.55Buy
 FTSE 1007,724.85Neutral
 Hang Seng18,085.00↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,780.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 359,529.47↑ Buy
 BASF43.270↑ Sell
 Bayer47.98Buy
 Allianz233.03↑ Sell
 Adidas163.66↑ Buy
 Lufthansa8.105↑ Buy
 Siemens AG134.03↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG10.215↑ Sell
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