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Marketmind: RIP YCC?

12 Tháng Giêng 2023
Marketmind: RIP YCC? © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A man wearing a protective mask walks past the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, May 22, 2020. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.

The main surprise in Asia was provided by a Yomiuri newspaper report that the Bank of Japan will review the side effects of its yield curve control (YCC) at a policy meeting next week and may take additional steps to correct distortions in the market.

This, presumably, refers to the fact that 10-year yields have been stuck at the new YCC ceiling of 0.5% for four sessions, even while the BOJ has been busy buying bonds in bulk to get them down.

The timing of the review was a surprise given the market had thought it would wait until BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda retires in April before taking any big steps. Then again, the market had thought the same last month when the central bank wrongfooted everyone by widening its YCC band.

Clearly it's hard to have a credible target for 10-year yields of zero when they are trading every day at 0.5%, and just buying yet more debt is unlikely to solve that.

The BOJ could raise the target to, say, 0.5% and lift the trading range to 0-1.0%, but markets would likely see it as capitulation and immediately take yields to the new ceiling.

This FACTBOX has some more options.

Whatever the decision, time is ticking for YCC and maybe even negative rates in Japan. That would be a seismic event for bonds given Japan has acted as an anchor for yields globally, while encouraging Japanese investors to funnel funds offshore.

Any reversal of those flows could see the yen rally further, one reason the dollar is down 0.6% so far today at 131.63.

The other major event in Asia was China's CPI for December which came in bang on expectations at 1.8% y/y, marking China as one of the very few countries in the world without an inflation dragon breathing down its neck.

Indeed, producer prices surprised on the downside with a drop of 0.7% y/y, the third month of declines and a world away from the 10.3% annual increase seen in December 2021. With reopening proceeding apace, supply bottlenecks fading and shipping costs plunging, China may yet return to being an exporter of disinflation, at least for goods prices.

As for U.S. CPI, the market is clearly priced for a dovish outcome, so there's some risk of disappointment. Median forecasts are 6.5% for headline and 5.7% for core, and this is one of those cases where a result just 0.1ppt either side could make or break the recent rally in bonds.

Other key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

- Fed's Harker, Barkin and Bullard speak

- U.S. weekly jobless claims seen rising to 215,000, with continued claims at 1.705 million

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BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
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04-03-2024 22:29:28 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0860

+0.0023 (+0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0860

+0.0023 (+0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2696

+0.0046 (+0.36%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

150.44

+0.33 (+0.22%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

AUD/USD

0.6514

-0.0009 (-0.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

USD/CAD

1.3574

+0.0017 (+0.13%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

EUR/JPY

163.37

+0.76 (+0.47%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

EUR/CHF

0.9619

+0.0037 (+0.39%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,109.35

+13.65 (+0.65%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Silver Futures

23.683

+0.319 (+1.37%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Copper Futures

3.8652

+0.0037 (+0.10%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

79.47

-0.50 (-0.63%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Brent Oil Futures

83.31

-0.24 (-0.29%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Natural Gas Futures

1.954

+0.119 (+6.49%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

US Coffee C Futures

188.33

+5.03 (+2.74%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,900.65

+5.79 (+0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

S&P 500

5,131.82

-5.27 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

17,694.45

-40.55 (-0.23%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

FTSE 100

7,628.92

-53.58 (-0.70%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

16,595.97

+6.53 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

2,079.10

+2.71 (+0.13%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

IBEX 35

10,048.55

-16.15 (-0.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

46.940

-1.045 (-2.18%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

28.05

-0.28 (-0.99%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

251.55

-0.25 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Adidas AG

184.50

-2.50 (-1.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.047

-0.144 (-2.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

181.00

-0.28 (-0.15%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Bank AG

12.600

+0.034 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

 EUR/USD1.0860↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2696↑ Buy
 USD/JPY150.44Neutral
 AUD/USD0.6514↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.3574Neutral
 EUR/JPY163.37↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9619↑ Buy
 Gold2,109.35Buy
 Silver23.683↑ Sell
 Copper3.8652Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI79.47↑ Sell
 Brent Oil83.31↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.954↑ Sell
 US Coffee C188.33↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,900.65↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,131.82↑ Buy
 DAX17,694.45Neutral
 FTSE 1007,628.92Buy
 Hang Seng16,595.97↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,079.10Buy
 IBEX 3510,048.55↑ Buy
 BASF46.940↑ Buy
 Bayer28.05↑ Sell
 Allianz251.55↑ Sell
 Adidas184.50↑ Sell
 Lufthansa7.047↑ Sell
 Siemens AG181.00↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG12.600↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank7,850/ 8,000
(50/ 50) # 1,762
SJC HCM7,840/ 8,040
(60/ 10) # 1,804
SJC Hanoi7,840/ 8,042
(60/ 10) # 1,806
SJC Danang7,840/ 8,042
(60/ 10) # 1,806
SJC Nhatrang7,840/ 8,042
(60/ 10) # 1,806
SJC Cantho7,840/ 8,042
(60/ 10) # 1,806
Cập nhật 04-03-2024 22:29:30
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$2,101.23+17.750.85%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V24.43024.910
RON 95-III23.92024.390
E5 RON 92-II22.75023.200
DO 0.05S20.77021.180
DO 0,001S-V21.76022.190
Dầu hỏa 2-K20.78021.190
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$79.13+1.670.02%
Brent$83.19+1.480.02%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD24.470,0024.840,00
EUR26.073,4227.504,34
GBP30.457,8531.753,97
JPY159,18168,48
KRW16,0119,41
Cập nhật lúc 18:53:11 04/03/2024
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