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Marketmind: New year, same ol' Fed

Wednesday, January 4, 2023
Marketmind: New year, same ol' Fed © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An eagle tops the U.S. Federal Reserve building's facade in Washington, July 31, 2013. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee

The start of the year is packed with a string of economic data, including U.S. job openings, that will help drive the market in the near term, with minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting taking the spotlight on Wednesday.

Much has happened since that Fed meeting in December, with China taking further steps to dismantle its "zero-COVID" policy and the Bank of Japan shocking the market by widening the range for its 10-year bond yield cap. What has not changed is the market's desire (hope, even) for the Fed to pivot away from its monetary tightening path.

When the Fed raised interest rates by 50 bps last month, after four straight 75-bps hikes, it stressed that rates may need to remain higher for longer to tame sticky inflation. Markets, though, are pricing in rate cuts for late 2023. Surely, something's gotta give.

While the minutes are likely to paint a clearer picture of the path the Fed wants to take, what will also interest investors is whether there is any divergence between doves and hawks regarding how high the terminal rate should go.

"While we would like to see if there are any hints of a serious disagreement with respect to the rate path, it is hard to see how the minutes would paint a different picture compared to the relatively concentrated forecasts in the dot plot," Natwest strategists said.

The new year has brought some cheer to Asian equities, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 1.3% and set for a third straight day of gains. The U.S. dollar is swaying after spiking 1% overnight, while oil slid some more after diving 4% on Tuesday.

Some of the cheer seems to have filtered through to European equities, with futures indicating a higher open, but whether the gains are held will likely depend on the clutch of economic data expected later in the day.

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:

Economic events: Eurozone, Germany and France S&P December PMI data; CPI data for Switzerland and France; Minutes from Fed's December meeting; JOLTS job openings

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27-02-2024 10:32:41 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0853

+0.0006 (+0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0853

+0.0006 (+0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2680

-0.0003 (-0.02%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (3)

USD/JPY

150.49

-0.20 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6533

-0.0007 (-0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.3506

-0.0001 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

EUR/JPY

163.32

-0.21 (-0.13%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9549

0.0000 (0.00%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (3)

Gold Futures

2,042.05

+3.15 (+0.15%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Silver Futures

22.773

+0.038 (+0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

3.8457

+0.0092 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

77.58

0.00 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

81.67

0.00 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Natural Gas Futures

1.736

-0.021 (-1.20%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

US Coffee C Futures

180.10

-0.20 (-0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,864.15

-8.42 (-0.17%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

S&P 500

5,069.53

-19.27 (-0.38%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

DAX

17,423.23

+3.90 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

FTSE 100

7,684.30

-21.98 (-0.29%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Hang Seng

16,549.00

-85.74 (-0.52%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

2,029.05

+12.36 (+0.61%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

IBEX 35

10,138.40

+7.80 (+0.08%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

46.330

-0.270 (-0.58%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

28.59

-0.23 (-0.80%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

245.65

-0.85 (-0.34%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

188.20

-0.58 (-0.31%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.237

-0.144 (-1.95%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

174.90

-0.40 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

12.302

-0.088 (-0.71%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0853Neutral
 GBP/USD1.2680Neutral
 USD/JPY150.49↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6533↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.3506↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY163.32Neutral
 EUR/CHF0.9549Neutral
 Gold2,042.05↑ Buy
 Silver22.773↑ Buy
 Copper3.8457↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI77.58↑ Buy
 Brent Oil81.67↑ Buy
 Natural Gas1.736Neutral
 US Coffee C180.10↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,864.15Neutral
 S&P 5005,069.53↑ Sell
 DAX17,423.23↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,684.30Neutral
 Hang Seng16,549.00↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,029.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,138.40Sell
 BASF46.330↑ Buy
 Bayer28.59↑ Buy
 Allianz245.65Neutral
 Adidas188.20Neutral
 Lufthansa7.237↑ Buy
 Siemens AG174.90↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG12.302↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank7,770/ 7,920
(50/ 50) # 1,840
SJC HCM7,750/ 7,950
(70/ 50) # 1,869
SJC Hanoi7,750/ 7,952
(70/ 50) # 1,871
SJC Danang7,750/ 7,952
(70/ 50) # 1,871
SJC Nhatrang7,750/ 7,952
(70/ 50) # 1,871
SJC Cantho7,750/ 7,952
(70/ 50) # 1,871
Cập nhật 27-02-2024 10:32:43
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$2,032.62-1.67-0.08%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V24.10024.580
RON 95-III23.59024.060
E5 RON 92-II22.47022.910
DO 0.05S20.91021.320
DO 0,001S-V21.90022.330
Dầu hỏa 2-K20.92021.330
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$77.39-0.06-0.00%
Brent$81.64-0.07-0.00%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD24.460,0024.830,00
EUR26.071,0227.501,80
GBP30.477,0831.774,02
JPY158,92168,20
KRW16,0119,40
Cập nhật lúc 10:29:28 27/02/2024
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