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Marketmind: New year, same ol' Fed

04 Tháng Giêng 2023
Marketmind: New year, same ol' Fed © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An eagle tops the U.S. Federal Reserve building's facade in Washington, July 31, 2013. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee

The start of the year is packed with a string of economic data, including U.S. job openings, that will help drive the market in the near term, with minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting taking the spotlight on Wednesday.

Much has happened since that Fed meeting in December, with China taking further steps to dismantle its "zero-COVID" policy and the Bank of Japan shocking the market by widening the range for its 10-year bond yield cap. What has not changed is the market's desire (hope, even) for the Fed to pivot away from its monetary tightening path.

When the Fed raised interest rates by 50 bps last month, after four straight 75-bps hikes, it stressed that rates may need to remain higher for longer to tame sticky inflation. Markets, though, are pricing in rate cuts for late 2023. Surely, something's gotta give.

While the minutes are likely to paint a clearer picture of the path the Fed wants to take, what will also interest investors is whether there is any divergence between doves and hawks regarding how high the terminal rate should go.

"While we would like to see if there are any hints of a serious disagreement with respect to the rate path, it is hard to see how the minutes would paint a different picture compared to the relatively concentrated forecasts in the dot plot," Natwest strategists said.

The new year has brought some cheer to Asian equities, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 1.3% and set for a third straight day of gains. The U.S. dollar is swaying after spiking 1% overnight, while oil slid some more after diving 4% on Tuesday.

Some of the cheer seems to have filtered through to European equities, with futures indicating a higher open, but whether the gains are held will likely depend on the clutch of economic data expected later in the day.

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:

Economic events: Eurozone, Germany and France S&P December PMI data; CPI data for Switzerland and France; Minutes from Fed's December meeting; JOLTS job openings

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30-01-2023 14:57:14 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0859

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

EUR/USD

1.0859

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

GBP/USD

1.2380

-0.0016 (-0.13%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

USD/JPY

129.63

-0.21 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (11)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.7082

-0.0021 (-0.30%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

USD/CAD

1.3341

+0.0032 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (2)

EUR/JPY

140.77

-0.34 (-0.24%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

1.0022

+0.0018 (+0.18%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Gold Futures

1,923.00

-6.40 (-0.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Silver Futures

23.727

+0.105 (+0.44%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Copper Futures

4.1830

-0.0395 (-0.94%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

79.08

-0.60 (-0.75%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Brent Oil Futures

85.83

-0.57 (-0.66%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Natural Gas Futures

2.655

-0.194 (-6.81%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

US Coffee C Futures

169.25

+2.10 (+1.26%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,178.01

+4.03 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

S&P 500

4,070.56

+10.13 (+0.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

DAX

15,150.03

+17.18 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

FTSE 100

7,765.15

+4.04 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

22,055.00

-633.90 (-2.79%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

US Small Cap 2000

1,911.46

+8.39 (+0.44%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

IBEX 35

9,060.20

+24.60 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

52.790

+0.170 (+0.32%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

56.28

+0.24 (+0.43%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

221.65

+0.05 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

148.30

+3.02 (+2.08%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.755

+0.028 (+0.29%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

144.50

+0.44 (+0.31%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

12.340

+0.208 (+1.71%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0859Neutral
 GBP/USD1.2380Buy
 USD/JPY129.63↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7082Sell
 USD/CAD1.3341↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY140.77↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0022↑ Buy
 Gold1,923.00↑ Sell
 Silver23.727↑ Sell
 Copper4.1830↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI79.08↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.83↑ Sell
 Natural Gas2.655↑ Sell
 US Coffee C169.25Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,178.01↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,070.56↑ Sell
 DAX15,150.03↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,765.15↑ Buy
 Hang Seng22,055.00↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,911.46↑ Sell
 IBEX 359,060.20↑ Buy
 BASF52.790↑ Buy
 Bayer56.28↑ Buy
 Allianz221.65↑ Buy
 Adidas148.30Sell
 Lufthansa9.755↑ Buy
 Siemens AG144.50↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG12.340↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,620/ 6,700
(-100/ -120) # 1,227
SJC HCM6,650/ 6,750
(-70/ -70) # 1,276
SJC Hanoi6,650/ 6,752
(-70/ -70) # 1,278
SJC Danang6,650/ 6,752
(-70/ -70) # 1,278
SJC Nhatrang6,650/ 6,752
(-70/ -70) # 1,278
SJC Cantho6,650/ 6,752
(-70/ -70) # 1,278
Cập nhật 30-01-2023 14:57:16
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,923.84-4.81-0.25%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V23.01023.470
RON 95-III22.15022.590
E5 RON 92-II21.35021.770
DO 0.05S21.63022.060
DO 0,001S-V23.39023.850
Dầu hỏa 2-K21.80022.230
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$79.04+1.411.76%
Brent$85.65+1.451.66%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.250,0023.620,00
EUR24.814,9626.204,51
GBP28.296,9629.503,61
JPY176,00186,33
KRW16,5220,13
Cập nhật lúc 14:54:14 30/01/2023
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