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Marketmind: Listen to Lael

Tuesday, November 15, 2022
Marketmind: Listen to Lael © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An eagle tops the U.S. Federal Reserve building's facade in Washington, July 31, 2013. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
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By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

With U.S. inflation looking increasingly likely to have peaked, debate is raging on how the Federal Reserve pivot will play out - when and how policymakers slow the pace of rate hikes, transition to a pause, then finally begin easing.

The nature and nuance of that debate was highlighted in the past 48 hours by Fed heavyweights Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair Lael Brainard.

Both covered similar ground but Waller struck a more hawkish tone. Wall Street closed in the red on Monday - not surprising given the extent of the rally Thursday and Friday - but investors are likely to gravitate towards Brainard.

Waller on Sunday reminded markets that October's inflation report was "only one data point" and that the Fed's final destination is "a ways off." This was effectively a warning to investors not to get too carried away, as they had done on Thursday and Friday.

Graphic: U.S. interest rates & S&P 500 https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gkplwmrbmvb/FFSNP500.jpg

Waller's caution helped push Wall Street lower at the open on Monday. Then Brainard spoke. While she trod fairly similar ground, she said "it will probably be appropriate soon to move to a slower pace of increases."

For whatever reason - Brainard's perceived seniority and influence at the Fed, investor positioning, a market just not wanting to go down, all of the above or something else - the snap back was instant, and the S&P 500 rose almost 1%.

Granted, it subsequently fell again, but investors are right to bet that the Fed's pivot may be relatively short and sweet. Apart from the June 2006-September 2007 hiatus every cycle peak in the past 50 years has been followed with rate cuts within eight months, most of them within only a few months.

Graphic: S&P 500 bear market rallies https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zdvxdooyjvx/BMR.jpg

Will this time be different? Futures markets think not: they are currently pricing in 50 bps of easing between June and December next year.

Asian markets, meanwhile, have a range of potential local steers on Tuesday in the shape of key regional economic data including third-quarter Japanese Gross Domestic Product, and Chinese retail sales, industrial output, unemployment, and investment for October.

Japan's output is expected to slow sharply from the April-June period, while on balance China's numbers are expected to weaken from September.

Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

Japan GDP (Q3)

China retail sales, unemployment, investment, industrial output (October)

Fed's Harker, Cook, Barr speak

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28-11-2022 11:26:32 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0358

-0.0037 (-0.36%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0358

-0.0037 (-0.36%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2053

-0.0040 (-0.33%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

138.54

-0.56 (-0.41%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

AUD/USD

0.6694

-0.0054 (-0.81%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.3443

+0.0066 (+0.50%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

EUR/JPY

143.52

-1.07 (-0.74%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

EUR/CHF

0.9808

-0.0019 (-0.19%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Gold Futures

1,750.50

-3.50 (-0.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

21.270

-0.160 (-0.75%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Copper Futures

3.5675

-0.0630 (-1.74%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

74.18

-2.10 (-2.75%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Brent Oil Futures

81.42

-2.29 (-2.74%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Natural Gas Futures

7.265

-0.065 (-0.89%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

US Coffee C Futures

164.40

+1.65 (+1.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,962.41

+0.42 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

S&P 500

4,026.12

-1.14 (-0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

DAX

14,541.38

+1.82 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

FTSE 100

7,486.67

+20.07 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

17,242.00

-331.58 (-1.89%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

1,869.19

+6.37 (+0.34%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

IBEX 35

8,416.60

+37.20 (+0.00%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

49.605

-0.280 (-0.56%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Bayer AG NA

55.45

-0.06 (-0.11%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

205.35

+0.40 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

123.98

-2.68 (-2.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.567

+0.036 (+0.48%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Siemens AG Class N

132.06

+1.10 (+0.84%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.390

+0.020 (+0.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

    EUR/USD 1.0358 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2053 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 138.54 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6694 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3443 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/JPY 143.52 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,750.50 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 21.270 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.5675 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 74.18 Neutral  
    Brent Oil 81.42 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 7.265 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 164.40 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,962.41 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,026.12 Neutral  
    DAX 14,541.38 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,486.67 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 17,242.00 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,869.19 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 8,416.60 Sell  
    BASF 49.605 Neutral  
    Bayer 55.45 Sell  
    Allianz 205.35 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 123.98 Neutral  
    Lufthansa 7.567 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 132.06 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 10.390 ↑ Buy  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,640/ 6,710
(6,640/ 6,710) # 1,469
SJC HCM6,655/ 6,735
(-5/ -25) # 1,494
SJC Hanoi6,655/ 6,737
(-5/ -25) # 1,496
SJC Danang6,655/ 6,737
(-5/ -25) # 1,496
SJC Nhatrang6,655/ 6,737
(-5/ -25) # 1,496
SJC Cantho6,655/ 6,737
(-5/ -25) # 1,496
Cập nhật 28-11-2022 11:26:34
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,750.96 -3.41 -0.19%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V24.91025.400
RON 95-III23.78024.250
E5 RON 92-II22.67023.120
DO 0.05S24.80025.290
DO 0,001S-V26.78027.310
Dầu hỏa 2-K24.64025.130
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI $74.07 +2.47 3.34%
Brent $81.29 +2.15 2.58%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD24.580,0024.850,00
EUR24.959,9426.355,23
GBP29.041,9330.277,62
JPY173,62183,79
KRW15,9719,46
Cập nhật lúc 11:13:42 28/11/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
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