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Marketmind: It's getting real

Monday, January 10, 2022
Marketmind: It's getting real © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo

A look at the day ahead from Sujata Rao.

As markets move to price a U.S. interest rate liftoff, possibly even from March, 10-year Treasury yields have risen a quarter point since the year started. Even more interestingly, "real", or inflation-adjusted U.S. yields are driving the moves with a 33 basis-point jump.

Real yields, while at the highest since last June, will remain deeply negative for a while. But their rise poses challenges for assets that benefited from the there-is-no-alternative reasoning. The past week saw stocks wobble, bitcoin tumble 8% and Nasdaq tech, the quintessential low-rate play, fell 4.5%. Graphic: Real yields, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/egvbkjowdpq/Pasted%20image%201641767281191.png

Holders of longer-duration bonds are also likely nervous -- such assets saw big outflows in the past four weeks, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) notes.

Meanwhile, inflation isn't letting up; euro area prices rose 5% year-on-year in December and Wednesday's U.S. CPI reading is expected at 7%-plus. The ECB has stayed resolutely dovish however -- board member Isabel Schnabel did say on the weekend the bank may need to act if energy price rises prove persistent. The euro started Monday 0.3% lower.

Stocks are trying to claw their way back up -- U.S. and European equity futures are inching up even if Treasury yields, both real and nominal, are a touch higher.

So what happens to stocks if real yields continue rising? There have been episodes a-plenty when equities rose alongside real yields, most recently in the March 2020-February 2021 period when a 1.5 percentage real yield increase was accompanied by a 50% global equities return.

Noting this, Berenberg recently advised clients to stay put. The share of rate-sensitive tech however is now far higher than in the past which possibly changes the equation a bit.

Finally, let's not forget the worrying geopolitics and fast-spreading Omicron, both capable of adding to inflation and dampening economic growth. Oil prices are extending last week's 5% gain and U.S.-Russia talks look set to start later in the day with few expectations.

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Monday:

-German Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Paschal Donohoe, Eurogroup president hold press conference

-NATO head Jens Stoltenberg meets with Ukrainian Foreign Minister

- Kazakh president steps up purge of security agency

-No concessions, no breakthroughs: Russia, U.S. cast pall on Ukraine talks

-Evergrande onshore bondholders to decide on extension; fellow developer Shimao puts all projects on sale

-UK manufacturers positive about 2022

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17-01-2022 11:40:44 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1406

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

EUR/USD

1.1406

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

GBP/USD

1.3650

-0.0022 (-0.16%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

USD/JPY

114.57

+0.38 (+0.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

AUD/USD

0.7213

+0.0006 (+0.09%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.2519

-0.0034 (-0.27%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

EUR/JPY

130.68

+0.34 (+0.26%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

EUR/CHF

1.0425

-0.0003 (-0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Gold Futures

1,818.15

+1.65 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Silver Futures

23.012

+0.094 (+0.41%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Copper Futures

4.4247

+0.0042 (+0.10%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

83.48

+0.18 (+0.22%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Brent Oil Futures

86.23

+0.17 (+0.20%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Natural Gas Futures

4.298

+0.036 (+0.84%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

US Coffee C Futures

239.65

+2.65 (+1.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,303.75

+31.56 (+0.74%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

S&P 500

4,662.85

+3.82 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

DAX

15,937.38

+54.14 (+0.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

FTSE 100

7,611.78

+68.83 (+0.91%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

Hang Seng

24,218.03

-165.29 (-0.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

2,162.90

+1.42 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

IBEX 35

8,840.38

+33.78 (+0.38%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

BASF SE NA O.N.

68.200

+0.090 (+0.13%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Bayer AG NA

52.80

+0.21 (+0.40%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

227.00

0.00 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

252.71

+0.36 (+0.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.210

-0.031 (-0.43%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

Siemens AG Class N

146.53

+0.67 (+0.46%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Deutsche Bank AG

12.020

+0.066 (+0.55%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

 EUR/USD1.1406Neutral
 GBP/USD1.3650Neutral
 USD/JPY114.57↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7213Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2519Sell
 EUR/JPY130.68Neutral
 EUR/CHF1.0425Neutral
 Gold1,818.15↑ Sell
 Silver23.012↑ Sell
 Copper4.4247Sell
 Crude Oil WTI83.48Sell
 Brent Oil86.23Neutral
 Natural Gas4.298↑ Sell
 US Coffee C239.65↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,303.75↑ Sell
 S&P 5004,662.85↑ Buy
 DAX15,937.38↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,611.78↑ Buy
 Hang Seng24,218.03↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,162.90↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,840.38↑ Sell
 BASF68.200Neutral
 Bayer52.80↑ Buy
 Allianz227.00↑ Buy
 Adidas252.71↑ Buy
 Lufthansa7.210↑ Sell
 Siemens AG146.53Neutral
 Deutsche Bank AG12.020↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,120/ 6,160
(0/ 0) # 1,148
SJC HCM6,110/ 6,170
(10/ 0) # 1,158
SJC Hanoi6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,160
SJC Danang6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,160
SJC Nhatrang6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,160
SJC Cantho6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,160
Cập nhật 17-01-2022 11:40:46
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,818.99+2.510.14%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-IV2400024480
RON 95-II,III2390024370
E5 RON 92-II2291023360
DO 0.05S1838018740
DO 0,001S-V1873019100
Dầu hỏa1719017530
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$84.06-0.32-0.38%
Brent$86.25-0.5-0.58%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD22.540,0022.850,00
EUR25.234,8826.649,42
GBP30.246,4531.537,99
JPY192,66203,94
KRW16,5020,10
Cập nhật lúc 18:52:49 17/01/2022
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