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Marketmind: Bank of England in a bind

Thursday, June 16, 2022
Marketmind: Bank of England in a bind © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The Bank of England (BoE) building is reflected in a sign, London, Britain, December 16, 2021. REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo

A look at the day ahead in markets from Sujata Rao

The Fed's decision to raise rates by 75 basis points has left its communication track record dented, with only a WSJ article -- which emerged during the central bank's traditional blackout period -- warning markets such a move was likely.

So, could the Bank of England, not best known for its adept guidance, deliver a half point rate rise instead of the expected 25 bps? Market now bet on a 50% chance of such a rise, versus 30% last week.

But unlike the Fed, the BoE must contend with the weakest growth outlook in the developed world, dogged not just by labour shortages and inflation approaching 10% but also messy politics, and a trade dispute with the EU.

So while some BoE rate-setters will vote for a half-point hike, some might want no move at all. A 25 bps compromise looks likely.

Markets are under pressure overall from recession fears after the Fed cut economic growth forecasts, with bond yields down and U.S. and European stock futures in the red.

On the data front, European registrations fell in May for the 11th month straight, while Japan revealed earlier that its trade deficit blew out to the biggest in more than eight years in May.

It was a consequence of $120-a barrel oil and also the yen's plunge beyond two-decade lows against the dollar. While imports soared 49%, exports so far show little benefit from yen weakness, rising just 16%.

The currency can expect little respite, with the Bank of Japan expected to hold its dovish stance on Friday. It even received tacit endorsement from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who said the BOJ would continue efforts to achieve its inflation target.

But events later on Thursday might well leave the BOJ as the only dove in the G7 spectrum. Several banks reckon the Swiss National Bank might raise its -0.7% interest rate, the world's lowest. Even if stands pat, expect it to flag a 25 bps rate hike in September

GRAPHIC: Reuters poll- UK economy and monetary policy outlook (https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/gdpzyexzyvw/Reuters%20poll-%20UK%20economy%20and%20monetary%20policy%20outlook.PNG)

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

-China May new home prices fall again

-Euro zone finance ministers meet

-Swiss National Bank policy meeting

-Bank of England meeting

-U.S. housing starts/initial jobless claims/Philly Fed index

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27-06-2022 22:05:49 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0596

+0.0042 (+0.40%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0596

+0.0042 (+0.40%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2303

+0.0041 (+0.33%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

135.20

+0.03 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6940

-0.0008 (-0.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

USD/CAD

1.2878

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Buy (3)

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EUR/JPY

143.26

+0.60 (+0.42%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

1.0134

+0.0025 (+0.25%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Gold Futures

1,823.65

-6.65 (-0.36%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Silver Futures

21.250

+0.091 (+0.43%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Copper Futures

3.7850

+0.0405 (+1.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

109.33

+1.71 (+1.59%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Brent Oil Futures

110.70

+1.60 (+1.47%)

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↑ Buy

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Natural Gas Futures

6.301

+0.020 (+0.32%)

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US Coffee C Futures

221.13

-2.12 (-0.95%)

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↑ Buy

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,542.35

+9.18 (+0.26%)

Summary

Buy

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S&P 500

3,915.23

+3.49 (+0.09%)

Summary

Neutral

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DAX

13,183.53

+65.40 (+0.50%)

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FTSE 100

7,260.90

+52.09 (+0.72%)

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↑ Buy

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Sell (1)

Hang Seng

22,229.52

+510.46 (+2.35%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

US Small Cap 2000

1,775.40

+12.94 (+0.73%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

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Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,255.46

+11.36 (+0.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

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BASF SE NA O.N.

42.775

+0.560 (+1.33%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Bayer AG NA

59.45

+1.66 (+2.87%)

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

181.20

0.00 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Adidas AG

171.82

+1.46 (+0.86%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.003

+0.037 (+0.62%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Siemens AG Class N

103.84

+1.22 (+1.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Deutsche Bank AG

8.873

-0.046 (-0.52%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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 EUR/USD1.0596Buy
 GBP/USD1.2303↑ Buy
 USD/JPY135.20↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6940Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2878↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY143.26↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0134↑ Buy
 Gold1,823.65↑ Sell
 Silver21.250↑ Sell
 Copper3.7850↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI109.33↑ Buy
 Brent Oil110.70↑ Buy
 Natural Gas6.301↑ Buy
 US Coffee C221.13↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,542.35Buy
 S&P 5003,915.23Neutral
 DAX13,183.53Buy
 FTSE 1007,260.90↑ Buy
 Hang Seng22,229.52↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,775.40↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,255.46↑ Buy
 BASF42.775↑ Buy
 Bayer59.45↑ Buy
 Allianz181.20↑ Buy
 Adidas171.82↑ Buy
 Lufthansa6.003↑ Buy
 Siemens AG103.84↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG8.873↑ Buy
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Cập nhật 27-06-2022 22:05:51
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$1,823.36-7.59-0.41%
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Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V33.47034.130
RON 95-III32.87033.520
E5 RON 92-II31.30031.920
DO 0.05S30.01030.610
DO 0,001S-V30.81031.420
Dầu hỏa 2-K28.78029.350
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$108.22-2.79-2.65%
Brent$110.73-2.69-2.48%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.080,0023.390,00
EUR23.932,6125.273,13
GBP27.815,2929.001,83
JPY167,64177,48
KRW15,5718,97
Cập nhật lúc 18:53:21 27/06/2022
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