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Inflation: Is it Getting Better or Worse?

Inflation has been on the Wall Street radar in recent months, as prices across the economy are surging, and the Federal Reserve considers whether to begin rolling back its...
Inflation: Is it Getting Better or Worse? © Reuters. Inflation: Is it Getting Better or Worse?

Inflation has been on the Wall Street radar in recent months, as prices across the economy are surging, and the Federal Reserve considers whether to begin rolling back its accommodative policy.

Are things getting better or worse lately? It depends on the gauge used to monitor inflation.

According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures of inflation at the retail or consumer level, things look better. Data released this week by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that August CPI increased at an annual rate of 5.3%, down from 5.4% June and July; the smallest gain in seven months. That's thanks to the easing in the price hikes of used cars and tracks, steady shelter and apparel price hikes, and declines in airfare prices.

However, the Producer Price Index (PPI) -- which measures inflation at the wholesale or producer level -- tells a different story. Statistics released last week by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that August producer prices increased at an annual rate of 8.3%. That's the highest reading since at least November of 2010.

Apparently, inflation has accelerated at the wholesale level, and moderated at the retail level. So, what does this divergence between wholesale and retail inflation mean for Wall Street and the Federal Reserve?

For Wall Street, the answer depends on the sector in which each listed company operates.

For companies operating in the wholesale sectors, the higher wholesale prices allow them to pass on any production cost hikes down the supply chain.

For companies that operate at the end of the supply chain, selling to consumers, the tame CPI increase means a margin squeeze, as these companies cannot pass higher production costs on to consumers.

Elsewhere on Wall Street, in the debt sector, the impact is mixed. Last week, the firm PPI number pushed U.S. Treasury bond yields higher, while this week's tame CPI number made yields lower.

Turning to the Federal Reserve, the divergence between the two numbers doesn't mean much. Based on the August FOMC minutes, the Fed is paying more attention to how the pandemic unfolds, and less attention to economic numbers.

Meanwhile, the Fed has repeatedly stated that inflation is transitory due to a structural shift in consumer demand from services to commodities during the pandemic, and supply-side bottlenecks as the economy opened up.

Therefore, inflation will ease once these factors wane away and the economy returns to normal. That's why it closely watches inflationary expectations, which suggest that inflation will eventually revert close to the official average target of 2%.

Hopefully, the Fed is right. Markets will be watching.

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22-09-2021 09:21:03 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1728

+0.0004 (+0.04%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.1728

+0.0004 (+0.04%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.3662

+0.0003 (+0.02%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

USD/JPY

109.37

+0.16 (+0.15%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

AUD/USD

0.7247

+0.0016 (+0.23%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

USD/CAD

1.2794

-0.0021 (-0.16%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

EUR/JPY

128.26

+0.22 (+0.18%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

EUR/CHF

1.0834

+0.0010 (+0.10%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Gold Futures

1,777.25

-0.95 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (3)

Silver Futures

22.703

+0.092 (+0.41%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Copper Futures

4.2140

+0.1040 (+2.53%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

71.09

+0.60 (+0.85%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Brent Oil Futures

74.85

+0.49 (+0.66%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Natural Gas Futures

4.828

+0.025 (+0.52%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

US Coffee C Futures

183.70

+1.10 (+0.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,097.51

+53.88 (+1.33%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

S&P 500

4,354.18

-3.55 (-0.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

DAX

15,348.53

+216.47 (+1.43%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

6,980.98

+77.07 (+1.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Hang Seng

24,221.54

+122.40 (+0.51%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (2)

US Small Cap 2000

2,190.36

+8.15 (+0.37%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

IBEX 35

8,756.00

+100.60 (+1.16%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

BASF SE NA O.N.

62.280

+0.620 (+1.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Bayer AG NA

45.70

+0.47 (+1.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

187.45

+3.59 (+1.95%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

281.90

+1.38 (+0.49%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

8.377

-0.287 (-3.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

Siemens AG Class N

145.32

+3.06 (+2.15%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (9)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.095

-0.135 (-1.32%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (3)

 EUR/USD1.1728Buy
 GBP/USD1.3662Neutral
 USD/JPY109.37Sell
 AUD/USD0.7247Sell
 USD/CAD1.2794Sell
 EUR/JPY128.26↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF1.0834Neutral
 Gold1,777.25↑ Buy
 Silver22.703↑ Sell
 Copper4.2140↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI71.09↑ Buy
 Brent Oil74.85Sell
 Natural Gas4.828↑ Buy
 US Coffee C183.70↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,097.51↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,354.18↑ Sell
 DAX15,348.53↑ Buy
 FTSE 1006,980.98↑ Buy
 Hang Seng24,221.54Neutral
 Small Cap 20002,190.36↑ Sell
 IBEX 358,756.00Neutral
 BASF62.280↑ Sell
 Bayer45.70↑ Buy
 Allianz187.45↑ Buy
 Adidas281.90↑ Sell
 Lufthansa8.377↑ Sell
 Siemens AG145.32↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG10.095Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank5,660/ 5,710
(10/ 10) # 816
SJC HCM5,650/ 5,715
(5/ 5) # 821
SJC Hanoi5,650/ 5,717
(5/ 5) # 823
SJC Danang5,650/ 5,717
(5/ 5) # 823
SJC Nhatrang5,650/ 5,717
(5/ 5) # 823
SJC Cantho5,650/ 5,717
(5/ 5) # 823
Cập nhật 22-09-2021 09:21:08
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,777.26+12.140.69%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-IV2149021910
RON 95-II,III2139021810
E5 RON 92-II2014020540
DO 0.05S1602016340
DO 0,001S-V1637016690
Dầu hỏa1508015380
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$71.10-0.78-1.10%
Brent$74.86-0.74-0.99%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD22.630,0022.860,00
EUR26.007,0827.360,60
GBP30.295,3831.561,13
JPY203,28215,04
KRW16,6220,24
Cập nhật lúc 09:18:20 22/09/2021
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