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IMF says emerging economies must prepare for Fed policy tightening

Monday, January 10, 2022
IMF says emerging economies must prepare for Fed policy tightening © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A participant stands near a logo of IMF at the International Monetary Fund - World Bank Annual Meeting 2018 in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, October 12, 2018. REUTERS/Johannes P. Christo

By Andrea Shalal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Emerging economies must prepare for U.S. interest rate hikes, the International Monetary Fund said, warning that faster than expected Federal Reserve moves could rattle financial markets and trigger capital outflows and currency depreciation abroad.

In a blog published Monday, the IMF said it expected robust U.S. growth to continue, with inflation likely to moderate later in the year. The global lender is due to release fresh global economic forecasts on Jan. 25.

It said a gradual, well-telegraphed tightening of U.S. monetary policy would likely have little impact on emerging markets, with foreign demand offsetting the impact of rising financing costs.

But broad-based U.S. wage inflation or sustained supply bottlenecks could boost prices more than anticipated and fuel expectations for more rapid inflation, triggering faster rate hikes by the U.S. central bank.

"Emerging economies should prepare for potential bouts of economic turbulence," the IMF said, citing the risks posed by faster-than-expected Fed rate hikes and the resurgent pandemic.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard this week said the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as March, months earlier than previously expected, and is now in a "good position" to take even more aggressive steps against inflation, as needed.

"Faster Fed rate increases could rattle financial markets and tighten financial conditions globally. These developments could come with a slowing of U.S. demand and trade and may lead to capital outflows and currency depreciation in emerging markets," senior IMF officials wrote in the blog.

It said emerging markets with high public and private debt, foreign exchange exposures, and lower current-account balances had already seen larger movements of their currencies relative to the U.S. dollar.

The fund said emerging markets with stronger inflation pressures or weaker institutions should act swiftly to let currencies depreciate and raise benchmark interest rates.It urged central banks to clearly and consistently communicate their plans to tighten policy, and said countries with high levels of debt denominated in foreign currencies should look to hedge their exposures where feasible.

Governments could also announce plans to boost fiscal resources by gradually increasing tax revenues, implementing pension and subsidy overhauls, or other measures, it added.

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16-01-2022 22:11:41 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.1415Neutral
 GBP/USD1.3676Neutral
 USD/JPY114.40Neutral
 AUD/USD0.7208Sell
 USD/CAD1.2542Neutral
 EUR/JPY130.59Neutral
 EUR/CHF1.0443Neutral
 Gold1,817.25Sell
 Silver22.948↑ Buy
 Copper4.4210↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI83.61↑ Sell
 Brent Oil86.25↑ Buy
 Natural Gas4.339Neutral
 US Coffee C239.65↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,272.19Buy
 S&P 5004,662.85↑ Buy
 DAX15,883.24↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,542.95Sell
 Hang Seng24,202.87↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20002,161.48↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,806.60↑ Buy
 BASF68.110Sell
 Bayer52.59↑ Sell
 Allianz227.00↑ Sell
 Adidas252.35Buy
 Lufthansa7.241↑ Buy
 Siemens AG145.86Neutral
 Deutsche Bank AG11.954Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,120/ 6,160
(0/ 0) # 1,155
SJC HCM6,115/ 6,175
(15/ 5) # 1,170
SJC Hanoi6,115/ 6,177
(15/ 5) # 1,172
SJC Danang6,115/ 6,177
(15/ 5) # 1,172
SJC Nhatrang6,115/ 6,177
(15/ 5) # 1,172
SJC Cantho6,115/ 6,177
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