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  4. 'Hawkish' Fed at Jackson Hole is Bullish, 'Dovish' Fed is Bearish - BofA's Hartnett
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'Hawkish' Fed at Jackson Hole is Bullish, 'Dovish' Fed is Bearish - BofA's Hartnett

By Senad Karaahmetovic U.S. futures are modestly down in Friday premarket trading as traders eagerly anticipated hearing from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole...
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'Hawkish' Fed at Jackson Hole is Bullish, 'Dovish' Fed is Bearish - BofA's Hartnett © Reuters. 'Hawkish' Fed at Jackson Hole is Bullish, 'Dovish' Fed is Bearish - BofA's Hartnett

By Senad Karaahmetovic

U.S. futures are modestly down in Friday premarket trading as traders eagerly anticipated hearing from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference.

For Bank of America’s top investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, the sooner Fed plays role of "the courageous lion," the better for macro and the better for markets.

"Hawkish" Fed is bullish, "dovish" Fed is bearish," Hartnett tells investors as he believes rates are still "too low," and QT "too light."

Hartnett argues that inflation is unlikely to drop below 4% by 2024. Hence, the Fed will be forced to continue hiking, which will result in the Fed funds rate likely exceeding 4% by 2024.

Besides Jackson Hole, Hartnett urges investors to fully focus on bond yields.

"If bond yields "double-top" next 4-8 weeks (i.e. UST 10-year yield fails to exceed 3.48%), autumn narrative becomes peak yields = peak spreads = no new lows in stocks."

Along these lines, the strategist believes yields are yet to peak. For this to happen, the market needs confirmation from lead indicators of higher yields, like China tech, biotech, and EM debt.

"Higher unemployment most likely catalyst for end of retail “buy the dip," Hartnett added.

As far as flows in the week to Wednesday are concerned, Hartnett highlighted the biggest outflow ($1.3 billion) from tech funds since November 2021, as well as the biggest inflow ($2.2 billion) to financials since January 22. In the meantime, the market witnessed the 28th consecutive week of outflow from European equities, which makes it the longest streak since 2016.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

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EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

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GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

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Buy (10)

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Indicators:

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USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

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↑ Buy

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EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

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EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

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Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

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Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

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Copper Futures

4.5305

-0.0105 (-0.23%)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

-0.79 (-0.96%)

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Brent Oil Futures

85.62

-0.71 (-0.82%)

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Natural Gas Futures

1.946

-0.009 (-0.46%)

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

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5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

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DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

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FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

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Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

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US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

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IBEX 35

10,854.40

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BASF SE NA O.N.

49.155

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Bayer AG NA

27.35

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

266.60

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Adidas AG

226.40

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

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Siemens AG Class N

175.90

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15.010

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 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank8,300/ 8,500
(8,300/ 8,500) # 1,298
SJC 1L, 10L, 1KG8,300/ 8,520
(0/ 0) # 1,510
SJC 1c, 2c, 5c7,380/ 7,550
(0/ 0) # 540
SJC 0,5c7,380/ 7,560
(0/ 0) # 550
SJC 99,99%7,370/ 7,470
(0/ 0) # 460
SJC 99%7,196/ 7,396
(0/ 0) # 386
Cập nhật 01-05-2024 10:45:19
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$2,285.72-47.5-2.04%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V25.44025.940
RON 95-III24.91025.400
E5 RON 92-II23.91024.380
DO 0.05S20.71021.120
DO 0,001S-V21.32021.740
Dầu hỏa 2-K20.68021.090
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$80.83+3.390.04%
Brent$85.50+3.860.05%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD25.088,0025.458,00
EUR26.475,3627.949,19
GBP30.873,5232.211,36
JPY156,74166,02
KRW15,9219,31
Cập nhật lúc 10:45:15 01/05/2024
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