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Gold expected to be contained by interest rates and strong dollar

By Ashitha Shivaprasad and Peter Hobson (Reuters) - Gold will average $1,745 an ounce in 2023, slightly below current prices, as high interest rates and a strong dollar reduce its...
Gold expected to be contained by interest rates and strong dollar © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo

By Ashitha Shivaprasad and Peter Hobson

(Reuters) - Gold will average $1,745 an ounce in 2023, slightly below current prices, as high interest rates and a strong dollar reduce its appeal, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

The gold price has fallen to about $1,770 an ounce from a high of $2,069.89 in March as the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks increased interest rates rapidly in an effort to tame inflation.

The higher rates have turned real yields on U.S. 10-year treasuries positive in April for the first time in two years, making non-yielding gold less attractive.

They have also boosted the U.S. dollar to 20-year highs, making dollar-priced gold more expensive for buyers with other currencies. The stronger dollar also attracts money from investors seeking a safe store of value, who might otherwise invest in gold.

The median forecasts from a survey of 35 analysts was for gold to average $1,770 an ounce in the July-September quarter, $1,750 in the fourth quarter and $1,745 in 2023.

That is a downgrade from a similar poll in May that predicted average prices of $1,875 in the third quarter and $1,762.50 in 2023.

Gold and silver: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/klvykwkkzvg/Gold%20and%20Silver%20Chart%20-%20Q3%20poll.png

Gold versus dollar: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/dwpkrwrrevm/Gold%20and%20Dollar%20Chart%20-%20Q3%20poll.png

Gold has averaged $1,854 an ounce so far this year.

"The U.S. dollar's dominance and the rise in real U.S. bond yields are weighing on the mood in the gold market," said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.

He said that further price falls are possible but the "base case calls for a stabilisation around current levels".

For silver, the poll forecast average prices of $20 an ounce in the third quarter, $20.06 in the fourth and $20.18 in 2023. That is down from the May poll's projection of $22.50 for 2023.

Silver cost about $20 an ounce on Wednesday, down from a high of $26.94 in March and a significantly larger fall than gold's. The silver price has averaged $22.66 so far in 2022.

Like gold, silver is often treated as a safe-haven asset, but it is more vulnerable to economic slowdowns because it is also used in industry, said WisdomTree analyst Nitesh Shah.

"Physical demand could be held back by weaker manufacturing activity," he said.

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17-08-2022 22:49:20 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0164

-0.0006 (-0.06%)

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EUR/USD

1.0164

-0.0006 (-0.06%)

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GBP/USD

1.2038

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USD/JPY

135.40

+1.18 (+0.88%)

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AUD/USD

0.6913

-0.0109 (-1.55%)

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USD/CAD

1.2935

+0.0091 (+0.70%)

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EUR/JPY

137.63

+1.14 (+0.84%)

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EUR/CHF

0.9691

+0.0037 (+0.38%)

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Gold Futures

1,775.85

-13.85 (-0.77%)

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Silver Futures

19.648

-0.437 (-2.18%)

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Copper Futures

3.5805

-0.0440 (-1.21%)

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Buy

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

86.27

-0.26 (-0.30%)

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Brent Oil Futures

91.96

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Natural Gas Futures

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US Coffee C Futures

219.65

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,753.25

-51.97 (-1.37%)

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S&P 500

4,254.80

-50.40 (-1.17%)

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DAX

13,630.66

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FTSE 100

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Hang Seng

19,922.45

+91.93 (+0.46%)

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US Small Cap 2000

1,972.40

-47.86 (-2.37%)

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IBEX 35

8,434.88

-77.02 (-0.90%)

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Neutral

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BASF SE NA O.N.

42.890

-1.860 (-4.16%)

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Neutral

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Bayer AG NA

53.38

-0.92 (-1.69%)

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

177.39

-2.55 (-1.42%)

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Buy

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Adidas AG

168.88

-4.48 (-2.58%)

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.465

-0.282 (-4.18%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Siemens AG Class N

108.44

-3.60 (-3.21%)

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Deutsche Bank AG

8.839

-0.125 (-1.39%)

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Buy (4)

Sell (3)

 EUR/USD1.0164↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2038↑ Sell
 USD/JPY135.40↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6913↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2935↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY137.63↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9691↑ Sell
 Gold1,775.85↑ Sell
 Silver19.648↑ Sell
 Copper3.5805Buy
 Crude Oil WTI86.27↑ Sell
 Brent Oil91.96↑ Sell
 Natural Gas9.209↑ Sell
 US Coffee C219.65↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,753.25↑ Sell
 S&P 5004,254.80↑ Sell
 DAX13,630.66Neutral
 FTSE 1007,516.15Neutral
 Hang Seng19,922.45Neutral
 Small Cap 20001,972.40↑ Sell
 IBEX 358,434.88Neutral
 BASF42.890Neutral
 Bayer53.38Neutral
 Allianz177.39Buy
 Adidas168.88↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.465↑ Sell
 Siemens AG108.44↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG8.839Neutral
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,600/ 6,700
(20/ 20) # 1,674
SJC HCM6,620/ 6,720
(20/ 20) # 1,695
SJC Hanoi6,620/ 6,722
(20/ 20) # 1,697
SJC Danang6,620/ 6,722
(20/ 20) # 1,697
SJC Nhatrang6,620/ 6,722
(20/ 20) # 1,697
SJC Cantho6,620/ 6,722
(20/ 20) # 1,697
Cập nhật 17-08-2022 22:49:22
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,762.53-13.14-0.74%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
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RON 95-V25.34025.840
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Dầu hỏa 2-K23.32023.780
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$86.37+0.70.81%
Brent$92.05+0.470.51%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.235,0023.545,00
EUR23.186,9924.485,46
GBP27.597,2628.774,17
JPY169,51179,46
KRW15,4518,83
Cập nhật lúc 18:50:59 17/08/2022
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