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Fed Hawkishness is Likely Behind and a Soft Landing is Increasingly Likely - JPM's Kolanovic

By Senad Karaahmetovic J.P. Morgan’s top quant Marko Kolanovic believes the tail risks are diminishing after the July CPI print, which came in weaker than expected. The stock...
Fed Hawkishness is Likely Behind and a Soft Landing is Increasingly Likely - JPM's Kolanovic © Reuters. Fed Hawkishness is Likely Behind and a Soft Landing is Increasingly Likely - JPM's Kolanovic

By Senad Karaahmetovic

J.P. Morgan’s top quant Marko Kolanovic believes the tail risks are diminishing after the July CPI print, which came in weaker than expected.

The stock market surged higher last week in response to the softer CPI print with signs that a peak in inflation has already been seen are growing. For Kolanovic, this reinforces the idea that “Fed hawkishness is likely behind and a soft landing is increasingly likely.”

“The prospect of a recession in Europe is still very much alive, but this should be manageable so long as the US and China are still growing,” Kolanovic told clients in a note yesterday.

JPM’s economists see global inflation falling below 5% in the second half of the year, with the U.S. leading the pack again.

“Confidence that the inflation fever is breaking comes from the alignment of the details of July CPI reports with a broader set of incoming news confirming that two significant inflation impulses are being removed. First, the surge in global oil and agricultural commodity prices has become a near-term disinflationary tailwind. Second, a moderation in core goods price gains,” Kolanovic added.

The strategist has once again reiterated his bullish view on the USD and commodities, with the latter presenting “an opportunity to add exposure.”

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29-09-2022 05:10:43 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9730

-0.0004 (-0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

EUR/USD

0.9730

-0.0004 (-0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

GBP/USD

1.0872

-0.0016 (-0.15%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

USD/JPY

144.18

+0.01 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6517

-0.0005 (-0.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

USD/CAD

1.3611

+0.0006 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

140.28

-0.05 (-0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

EUR/CHF

0.9497

-0.0004 (-0.04%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Gold Futures

1,667.60

-1.10 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Silver Futures

18.890

-0.020 (-0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Copper Futures

3.3835

+0.0020 (+0.06%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.88

+0.03 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Brent Oil Futures

87.98

+3.11 (+3.66%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Natural Gas Futures

7.017

-0.010 (-0.14%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

US Coffee C Futures

227.80

+3.45 (+1.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,335.30

+6.65 (+0.20%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

S&P 500

3,719.04

+71.75 (+1.97%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

DAX

12,183.28

+43.60 (+0.36%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

FTSE 100

7,005.39

+20.80 (+0.30%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Hang Seng

17,250.88

-609.43 (-3.41%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

US Small Cap 2000

1,725.13

+62.62 (+3.77%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

IBEX 35

7,442.20

-3.50 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (5)

BASF SE NA O.N.

39.415

-0.080 (-0.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

48.19

-0.07 (-0.13%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

160.72

-3.02 (-1.84%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

130.24

+2.94 (+2.31%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.772

-0.024 (-0.41%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

99.46

+1.54 (+1.57%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Bank AG

7.854

-0.274 (-3.37%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

 EUR/USD0.9730↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.0872↑ Sell
 USD/JPY144.18↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6517↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3611↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY140.28↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9497Neutral
 Gold1,667.60↑ Sell
 Silver18.890↑ Sell
 Copper3.3835Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI81.88↑ Sell
 Brent Oil87.98↑ Buy
 Natural Gas7.017↑ Sell
 US Coffee C227.80↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,335.30Neutral
 S&P 5003,719.04↑ Sell
 DAX12,183.28Neutral
 FTSE 1007,005.39Neutral
 Hang Seng17,250.88Buy
 Small Cap 20001,725.13↑ Buy
 IBEX 357,442.20Neutral
 BASF39.415↑ Buy
 Bayer48.19Neutral
 Allianz160.72↑ Buy
 Adidas130.24↑ Buy
 Lufthansa5.772↑ Buy
 Siemens AG99.46↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG7.854↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,410/ 6,510
(0/ 0) # 1,818
SJC HCM6,420/ 6,520
(0/ 0) # 1,831
SJC Hanoi6,420/ 6,522
(0/ 0) # 1,833
SJC Danang6,420/ 6,522
(0/ 0) # 1,833
SJC Nhatrang6,420/ 6,522
(0/ 0) # 1,833
SJC Cantho6,420/ 6,522
(0/ 0) # 1,833
Cập nhật 29-09-2022 05:10:45
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,659.90+30.791.89%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V23.26023.720
RON 95-III22.58023.030
E5 RON 92-II21.78022.210
DO 0.05S22.53022.980
DO 0,001S-V24.51025.000
Dầu hỏa 2-K22.44022.880
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$80.94-1.35-1.67%
Brent$88.24-1.29-1.46%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.580,0023.890,00
EUR22.159,1623.399,49
GBP24.732,3625.786,46
JPY159,76169,13
KRW14,2317,34
Cập nhật lúc 17:55:10 28/09/2022
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