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Ex-Fed Chief Greenspan Says US Recession Is Likely

Wednesday, January 4, 2023
Ex-Fed Chief Greenspan Says US Recession Is Likely © Reuters Ex-Fed Chief Greenspan Says US Recession Is Likely

(Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan said a US recession is the “most likely outcome” as the central bank tightens monetary policy to curb inflation.

While the last two monthly reports showed a deceleration in consumer-price increases, “I don’t think it will warrant a Fed reversal that is substantial enough to avoid at least a mild recession,” Greenspan — now a senior economic adviser to Advisors Capital Management — said in a question-and-answer commentary on ACM’s website distributed Tuesday.

The Fed raised interest rates aggressively last year in a bid to pull inflation down from a 40-year high, and says it will keep tightening policy until the job is done.

Wage increases, and by extension employment, still need to soften further for the pullback in inflation to be anything more than transitory, Greenspan said.

“We may have a brief period of calm on the inflation front but I think it will be too little too late,” he said.

The risk of lowering rates too quickly is that inflation “could flare up again and we would be back at square one,” Greenspan said. That could damage the Fed’s credibility as the guarantor of stable prices, he said.

“For that reason alone, I do not expect the Federal Reserve to loosen prematurely unless they deem it absolutely necessary, for example, to prevent financial market malfunctioning,” he said.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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22-02-2024 04:52:12 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.0818Sell
 GBP/USD1.2635Neutral
 USD/JPY150.29↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6552Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3506↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY162.59↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9516↑ Buy
 Gold2,036.20Neutral
 Silver22.913Buy
 Copper3.8795↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI78.02↑ Sell
 Brent Oil83.11Sell
 Natural Gas1.781↑ Buy
 US Coffee C187.80↑ Sell
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 Lufthansa7.428↑ Buy
 Siemens AG169.42↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG11.994↑ Sell
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