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Euro slumps after bleak PMIs, dollar drops vs yen

By Saikat Chatterjee and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - The euro fell across the board on Thursday as weaker-than-expected German and French PMI data...

By Saikat Chatterjee and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - The euro fell across the board on Thursday as weaker-than-expected German and French PMI data confirmed that the euro zone economy is struggling to gain traction, prompting traders to trim bets on big interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank.

High prices in the euro zone meant demand for manufactured goods fell in June at the fastest rate since May 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic was taking hold, with S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI)'s headline factory Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) falling to a near two- year low of 52.0 from 54.6.

"The (PMI) manufacturing/services ratio tends to be a good barometer for pro-cyclical currencies. The ratio has sharply dropped relative to the U.S.," said Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist in a research note.

"This dynamic is typically consistent with further U.S. dollar resilience. This could be bolstered as recession fears mount," he added.

Following the data, money markets priced in about 30 basis points (bps) of rate hikes in July compared to 34 bps on Monday. Traders also trimmed their expectations of how much the ECB will hike rates by the end of 2022 to 161 bps compared to 176 bps on Monday.

Against the U.S. dollar, the single currency declined 0.4% to $1.0522. It earlier declined below a key $1.05 level for the third time this week. The euro also declined 1.6% versus the Japanese yen

The euro's losses pulled the dollar away from earlier lows and sent the greenback into positive territory against its rivals after cautious comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday weighed on sentiment.

The dollar index inched higher to 104.34, up 0.1%.

While markets have steadfastly held to the view the Fed is on track to raise interest rates by another hefty 75 bps in July, some analysts believe the ECB and the Bank of England will adopt a softer rate increase path or risk damaging growth.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday a recession was "certainly a possibility," reflecting fears in financial markets that the Fed's tightening pace will throttle growth.

The Fed chief also testified on Thursday before the House of Representatives, reiterating its commitment to fight inflation.

"As long as there is a debate over whether a recession will happen, there will be downward swings for the stock market that will ultimately boost the buck as a safe haven," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington.

Since the beginning of the year amid the turmoil over Ukraine and the slide on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 down 20%, the dollar index has gained 9%.

"President Joe Biden sounded positive in the face of challenges a la Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. A recession isn't in their minds and should not necessarily be the conclusion the public should reach following promises to contract monetary policy," Perez added.

Against the yen, the dollar dropped 1% to 134.84 yen, retreating further away from a 24-year high hit earlier this week.

U.S. data showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits edged down last week as labor market conditions remained tight, though a slowdown is emerging.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 229,000 for the week ended June 18. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 227,000 applications for the latest week. Claims have been treading water since tumbling to more than a 53-year low of 166,000 in March.

The dollar index slipped following the U.S. data.

========================================================

Currency bid prices at 10:57AM (1457 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Dollar index 104.2400 104.2200 +0.03% 8.966% +104.7800 +104.0500

Euro/Dollar $1.0531 $1.0569 -0.35% -7.37% +$1.0581 +$1.0484

Dollar/Yen 134.4350 136.2100 -1.30% +16.79% +136.2000 +134.2650

Euro/Yen 141.56 143.94 -1.65% +8.62% +143.9800 +141.4200

Dollar/Swiss 0.9575 0.9617 -0.42% +4.99% +0.9678 +0.9568

Sterling/Dollar $1.2271 $1.2265 +0.04% -9.27% +$1.2294 +$1.2171

Dollar/Canadian 1.2962 1.2947 +0.13% +2.53% +1.2987 +1.2937

Aussie/Dollar $0.6917 $0.6924 -0.09% -4.84% +$0.6928 +$0.6870

Euro/Swiss 1.0084 1.0159 -0.74% -2.75% +1.0165 +1.0069

Euro/Sterling 0.8580 0.8615 -0.41% +2.14% +0.8641 +0.8575

NZ $0.6300 $0.6286 +0.24% -7.95% +$0.6310 +$0.6249

Dollar/Dollar

Dollar/Norway 9.9480 9.9045 +0.63% +13.13% +10.0200 +9.8980

Euro/Norway 10.4785 10.4694 +0.09% +4.65% +10.5295 +10.4415

Dollar/Sweden 10.1708 10.0944 +0.41% +12.78% +10.2077 +10.0812

Euro/Sweden 10.7133 10.6697 +0.41% +4.68% +10.7283 +10.6605

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25-06-2022 23:51:53 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0554

+0.0031 (+0.29%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (4)

EUR/USD

1.0554

+0.0031 (+0.29%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (4)

GBP/USD

1.2272

+0.0012 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

USD/JPY

135.23

+0.29 (+0.22%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.6944

+0.0055 (+0.80%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

USD/CAD

1.2891

-0.0103 (-0.79%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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EUR/JPY

142.71

+0.71 (+0.50%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (1)

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Sell (1)

EUR/CHF

1.0114

-0.0001 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

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Gold Futures

1,828.10

-1.70 (-0.09%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

21.130

+0.088 (+0.42%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (4)

Copper Futures

3.7365

-0.0025 (-0.07%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

107.06

+2.79 (+2.68%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Brent Oil Futures

113.19

+3.14 (+2.85%)

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Natural Gas Futures

6.173

-0.066 (-1.06%)

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US Coffee C Futures

223.40

-5.60 (-2.45%)

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Buy (10)

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,533.17

+96.88 (+2.82%)

Summary

Neutral

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Buy (4)

Sell (8)

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Sell (4)

S&P 500

3,911.74

+116.01 (+3.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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DAX

13,118.13

+205.54 (+1.59%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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FTSE 100

7,208.81

+188.36 (+2.68%)

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Hang Seng

21,719.06

+445.19 (+2.09%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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US Small Cap 2000

1,765.74

+54.06 (+3.16%)

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IBEX 35

8,244.10

+137.70 (+1.70%)

Summary

Sell

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Buy (3)

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BASF SE NA O.N.

42.215

+0.785 (+1.89%)

Summary

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Bayer AG NA

57.79

-0.75 (-1.28%)

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

181.20

+2.20 (+1.23%)

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Adidas AG

170.36

+3.30 (+1.98%)

Summary

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.966

-0.310 (-4.94%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Siemens AG Class N

102.62

+3.36 (+3.39%)

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Deutsche Bank AG

8.919

+0.407 (+4.78%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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 EUR/USD1.0554Buy
 GBP/USD1.2272↑ Sell
 USD/JPY135.23↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6944↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2891↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY142.71↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0114↑ Sell
 Gold1,828.10↑ Buy
 Silver21.130Neutral
 Copper3.7365Sell
 Crude Oil WTI107.06↑ Sell
 Brent Oil113.19↑ Sell
 Natural Gas6.173↑ Buy
 US Coffee C223.40↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,533.17Neutral
 S&P 5003,911.74↑ Buy
 DAX13,118.13↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,208.81↑ Buy
 Hang Seng21,719.06↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,765.74↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,244.10Sell
 BASF42.215↑ Buy
 Bayer57.79↑ Sell
 Allianz181.20↑ Sell
 Adidas170.36↑ Sell
 Lufthansa5.966↑ Sell
 Siemens AG102.62↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG8.919↑ Buy
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SJC Eximbank6,760/ 6,840
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