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Energy Is Now Viewed as the Next Fault Line for Global Markets

(Bloomberg) -- This year’s standout inflation trade of backing commodities is coming under pressure on concern a recession will curb demand for raw materials. That’s the view of...
Energy Is Now Viewed as the Next Fault Line for Global Markets © Reuters. Energy Is Now Viewed as the Next Fault Line for Global Markets

(Bloomberg) -- This year’s standout inflation trade of backing commodities is coming under pressure on concern a recession will curb demand for raw materials.

That’s the view of Mandy Xu, head of equity derivatives strategy at Credit Suisse Group AG, who said derivatives-market bets for crude show growing speculation that the deteriorating economic outlook may outweigh supply challenges.

“Even the most supply constrained commodity such as oil, what we’ve started to see in the derivatives market is people starting to price in more downside risk,” Xu said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Xu cited a measure from the options market known as the put skew, the premium a buyer must pay to protect against a decline in prices versus a rise. She said the climbing skew signals worries about downside risks to global growth.

Everything from industrial metals to crude oil has tumbled this month, pushing down a gauge of commodities to the lowest level since March. Fears that tightening US monetary policy will lead to a recession are gripping global markets, overshadowing supply challenges facing raw materials.

“The only sector up on the year is energy and that is what we’ve been highlighting for a couple of weeks now in terms of the next potential pain point for investors,” Xu said. “The risk of recession means that further upside in the sector is likely limited.”

The energy sector in the S&P 500 is up 32% this year, the only subgroup of the index still in the green. But a wider debate is now raging about the outlook for oil prices. Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS). said in a note on Tuesday that demand is still running ahead of supply, warning the Fed “cannot print commodities.” 

Weaker Demand

Others are more bearish.

“A declining price profile across most mining and energy commodities is justified in light of a weakening demand outlook,” said Vivek Dhar, a commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY). 

The outlook for rising prices “is likely contingent on China relaxing its Covid‑zero policy,” he wrote in a note Thursday, referring to Beijing’s preference for mobility curbs to stamp out virus outbreaks.

That path ahead for raw-material prices is crucial to global markets. Sustained declines may help curb inflation expectations and allow central banks to slow the pace of interest-rate hikes, potentially bolstering stocks and bonds.

“Falling commodities should be welcomed, as it breeds disinflationary pressures,” Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group, wrote in a note. “This dynamic becomes far more bullish for equities if it’s driven by the perception of rising supply, not demand concerns, which seems to be the case now.”

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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27-06-2022 21:40:40 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0575

+0.0021 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0575

+0.0021 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2289

+0.0027 (+0.22%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

135.24

+0.07 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.6931

-0.0016 (-0.24%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

USD/CAD

1.2896

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/JPY

143.01

+0.35 (+0.25%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

1.0123

+0.0014 (+0.14%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Gold Futures

1,826.25

-4.05 (-0.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Silver Futures

21.302

+0.143 (+0.68%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Copper Futures

3.7687

+0.0242 (+0.65%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

108.36

+0.74 (+0.69%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

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Brent Oil Futures

109.88

+0.78 (+0.71%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Natural Gas Futures

6.307

+0.026 (+0.41%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Indicators:

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US Coffee C Futures

220.67

-2.58 (-1.16%)

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↑ Buy

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Indicators:

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,531.75

-1.42 (-0.04%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

S&P 500

3,904.23

-7.51 (-0.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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DAX

13,161.89

+43.76 (+0.33%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Indicators:

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FTSE 100

7,254.65

+45.84 (+0.64%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Indicators:

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Sell (1)

Hang Seng

22,229.52

+510.46 (+2.35%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

US Small Cap 2000

1,767.35

+4.89 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,216.93

-27.17 (-0.33%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

BASF SE NA O.N.

42.740

+0.525 (+1.24%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (4)

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Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

59.41

+1.62 (+2.80%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Sell (2)

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Sell (2)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

180.94

-0.26 (-0.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Sell (1)

Adidas AG

171.55

+1.19 (+0.70%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.971

+0.005 (+0.08%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Siemens AG Class N

103.62

+1.00 (+0.97%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (8)

Deutsche Bank AG

8.809

-0.110 (-1.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0575↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2289↑ Buy
 USD/JPY135.24↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6931Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2896↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY143.01↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0123↑ Sell
 Gold1,826.25↑ Sell
 Silver21.302↑ Sell
 Copper3.7687↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI108.36↑ Buy
 Brent Oil109.88↑ Buy
 Natural Gas6.307↑ Buy
 US Coffee C220.67↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,531.75↑ Buy
 S&P 5003,904.23↑ Buy
 DAX13,161.89↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,254.65↑ Buy
 Hang Seng22,229.52↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,767.35↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,216.93↑ Buy
 BASF42.740↑ Buy
 Bayer59.41↑ Buy
 Allianz180.94↑ Buy
 Adidas171.55Sell
 Lufthansa5.971Neutral
 Siemens AG103.62↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG8.809↑ Buy
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SJC Eximbank6,775/ 6,845
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Cập nhật 27-06-2022 21:40:43
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RON 95-V33.47034.130
RON 95-III32.87033.520
E5 RON 92-II31.30031.920
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Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
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EUR23.932,6125.273,13
GBP27.815,2929.001,83
JPY167,64177,48
KRW15,5718,97
Cập nhật lúc 18:53:21 27/06/2022
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