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Dollar weakens for a 4th day on U.S. rate view

By Saikat Chatterjee LONDON (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell for a fourth consecutive day on Friday to its lowest in more than two months as investors took the view that most of...
Dollar weakens for a 4th day on U.S. rate view © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A U.S. Dollar banknote is seen in this illustration taken May 26, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

By Saikat Chatterjee

LONDON (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell for a fourth consecutive day on Friday to its lowest in more than two months as investors took the view that most of the recent hawkishness from the U.S. central bank has already been priced in.

On Friday, the greenback slipped 0.2% to 94.62 against a basket of currencies, its lowest since early November. On a weekly basis, it is set to weaken 1.11%, its biggest drop since December 2020. On Thursday, it fell below a 100-day moving average for the first time since June 2021.

"The U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders, but the flattening yield curve and weaker dollar is sending a different message," said Kenneth Broux, an FX strategist at Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) in London.

"The correction of the dollar to November lows tells us investors see greater value elsewhere as earlier and more aggressive Fed tightening, embedded in rising real yields, threaten to weaken the economy and deflate asset valuations."

Inflation-adjusted 10-year U.S. yields are up 40 bps from the start of the year, threatening to undermine a stock market rally and weigh on economic prospects.

Indeed, with hedge fund dollar positioning holding close to the highest levels since early 2020 and terminal U.S. rate pricing signalling peak rates at below 2%, far below the highs of previous Federal Reserve rate cycles, investors were wary of adding to long positions.

HSBC strategists said markets were increasingly concerned about the impact of the Fed's intentions on economic growth, from the tapering and shrinking of the central bank's balance sheet to likely higher interest rates.

"In other words, the market is unsure whether this is a good or bad thing for the USD," they said.

Against its rivals, the dollar's losses were most pronounced versus the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan, against which it declined 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.

While the safe-haven yen benefited from weakness in global stocks, a Reuters report that the Bank of Japan is deliberating how it can start telegraphing an eventual rate increase sent the Australian dollar and U.S. Treasury yields lower, which also weighed on the greenback.

The dollar's doldrums have escalated this week even as U.S. interest rate futures have all but locked in four rate rises this year.

But longer-dated yields have fallen slightly on hawkish comments from Fed officials about reducing the bank's balance sheet with Fed fund futures signalling U.S. interest rates will peak by mid-2023.

The euro is up more than 1% for the week so far and has punched out of a range it has held since late November, hitting its highest since Nov. 11 at $1.1483. Positioning data on trading platform IG showed traders were largely neutral.

Sterling gained, despite a political crisis that threatens Prime Minister Boris Johnson's job, with the pound heading for a fourth consecutive weekly gain of more than 0.5%. It was last bought at $1.3730.

Crytocurrencies stabilised after a rocky week, with prices of Bitcoin holding near their lowest levels in more than three months below $42,000.

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17-01-2022 11:05:29 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1407

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.1407

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.3651

-0.0022 (-0.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

114.60

+0.40 (+0.35%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

AUD/USD

0.7212

+0.0006 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

USD/CAD

1.2518

-0.0035 (-0.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

EUR/JPY

130.71

+0.36 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

1.0424

-0.0006 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Gold Futures

1,818.45

+1.95 (+0.11%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Silver Futures

23.027

+0.109 (+0.48%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Copper Futures

4.4265

+0.0060 (+0.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

83.42

+0.12 (+0.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

86.14

+0.08 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

Natural Gas Futures

4.283

+0.021 (+0.49%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

US Coffee C Futures

239.65

+2.65 (+1.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,306.85

+34.66 (+0.81%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

S&P 500

4,662.85

+3.82 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

DAX

15,946.95

+63.71 (+0.40%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

FTSE 100

7,611.30

+68.35 (+0.91%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Hang Seng

24,218.03

-165.29 (-0.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

2,163.30

+1.82 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,843.95

+37.35 (+0.42%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (9)

BASF SE NA O.N.

68.250

+0.140 (+0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

52.77

+0.18 (+0.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

226.18

-0.82 (-0.36%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

252.15

-0.20 (-0.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.231

-0.010 (-0.14%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

Siemens AG Class N

146.67

+0.81 (+0.56%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Deutsche Bank AG

11.986

+0.032 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

 EUR/USD1.1407↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.3651↑ Buy
 USD/JPY114.60Sell
 AUD/USD0.7212↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2518↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY130.71↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0424↑ Sell
 Gold1,818.45Neutral
 Silver23.027Neutral
 Copper4.4265↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI83.42↑ Buy
 Brent Oil86.14↑ Buy
 Natural Gas4.283↑ Sell
 US Coffee C239.65↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,306.85Neutral
 S&P 5004,662.85↑ Buy
 DAX15,946.95↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,611.30Sell
 Hang Seng24,218.03↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,163.30↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,843.95↑ Sell
 BASF68.250↑ Buy
 Bayer52.77↑ Sell
 Allianz226.18Neutral
 Adidas252.15↑ Sell
 Lufthansa7.231↑ Sell
 Siemens AG146.67Neutral
 Deutsche Bank AG11.986↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,120/ 6,160
(0/ 0) # 1,148
SJC HCM6,110/ 6,170
(10/ 0) # 1,158
SJC Hanoi6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,160
SJC Danang6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,160
SJC Nhatrang6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,160
SJC Cantho6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,160
Cập nhật 17-01-2022 11:05:31
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,818.96+2.480.14%
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ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-IV2400024480
RON 95-II,III2390024370
E5 RON 92-II2291023360
DO 0.05S1838018740
DO 0,001S-V1873019100
Dầu hỏa1719017530
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$83.43+0.410.49%
Brent$85.66+0.380.44%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD22.540,0022.850,00
EUR25.234,8826.649,42
GBP30.246,4531.537,99
JPY192,66203,94
KRW16,5020,10
Cập nhật lúc 18:52:49 17/01/2022
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