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Dollar wallows near 3-week low on bets for less aggressive Fed

Monday, August 1, 2022
Dollar wallows near 3-week low on bets for less aggressive Fed © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

By Kevin Buckland

TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar hung near a three-week low to major peers on Monday as markets continued to wager that the Federal Reserve has less tightening to do with the U.S. economy at risk of recession.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six counterparts, edged 0.1% lower to 105.89, slipping back toward Friday's low of 105.53, a level not seen since July 5.

Data at the end of last week tossed the greenback in both directions, rising initially after the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed the fastest inflation since 2005, only to sink after the final University of Michigan report - closely watched by Fed policymakers - showed slipping consumer inflation expectations.

The big economic focus for this week will be the monthly U.S. jobs report on Friday.

Traders currently price about 31% probability that the Fed will keep its current 75 basis-point pace of rate hikes at its next meeting on Sept. 21, with 69% odds for a smaller half point increase.

"Markets look to be betting the Fed has done the lion's share of its task on inflation and will be receptive to slowing activity data," Taylor Nugent, a markets economist at NAB in Sydney, wrote in a client note.

The dollar slipped 0.22% to 132.925 yen, heading back toward the six-week low of 132.505 reached on Friday.

The currency pair is extremely sensitive to changes in U.S. long-term Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year hovering around 2.67% after sliding to the lowest since early April at 2.618% at the end of last week.

The euro, however, edged 0.07% lower to $1.0218, continuing its consolidation near the middle of its range over the past week and a half.

Sterling was about flat at $1.2186, after hitting the highest since June 28 at $1.2245 on Friday. Markets are laying 67% odds for a half-point rate hike on Thursday, compared to 33% probability of a quarter-point increase.

The Reserve Bank of Australia sets policy on Tuesday, and is expected to deliver another half point increase, with traders seeing just a 16% chance of a smaller quarter point tightening.

The Aussie dollar slipped 0.19% to $0.69775 on Monday, but after touching a six-week high of $0.7032 in the previous session.

"Should the market continue to hear what it wants from the Fed, the Aussie can readily spend more time above $0.70," NAB's Nugent said.

"But $0.65-0.70 is still seen containing most of the price action in coming months."

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16-08-2022 20:01:45 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0146

-0.0014 (-0.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0146

-0.0014 (-0.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2052

-0.0002 (-0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

134.59

+1.26 (+0.95%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

AUD/USD

0.7001

-0.0022 (-0.31%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.2890

-0.0014 (-0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

EUR/JPY

136.55

+1.10 (+0.81%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9641

+0.0027 (+0.28%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Gold Futures

1,788.45

-9.65 (-0.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (10)

Silver Futures

19.957

-0.315 (-1.55%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (3)

Copper Futures

3.6215

+0.0040 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

89.48

+0.07 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Brent Oil Futures

94.96

-0.14 (-0.15%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Natural Gas Futures

9.316

+0.588 (+6.74%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

US Coffee C Futures

223.85

-1.65 (-0.73%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,792.35

+2.73 (+0.07%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

S&P 500

4,297.14

+16.99 (+0.40%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

DAX

13,843.02

+26.41 (+0.19%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

FTSE 100

7,548.15

+39.00 (+0.52%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Hang Seng

19,830.52

-210.34 (-1.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

2,020.40

+7.30 (+0.36%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,482.83

+55.83 (+0.66%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

BASF SE NA O.N.

44.182

+0.122 (+0.28%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

54.05

+0.49 (+0.91%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

179.57

+0.79 (+0.44%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

Adidas AG

170.65

-2.29 (-1.32%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.723

-0.011 (-0.16%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

111.23

-0.97 (-0.86%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Deutsche Bank AG

8.988

+0.046 (+0.51%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0146↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2052↑ Buy
 USD/JPY134.59↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7001↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2890↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY136.55↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9641Sell
 Gold1,788.45↑ Sell
 Silver19.957Neutral
 Copper3.6215↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI89.48↑ Sell
 Brent Oil94.96↑ Sell
 Natural Gas9.316↑ Buy
 US Coffee C223.85↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,792.35Neutral
 S&P 5004,297.14Neutral
 DAX13,843.02Neutral
 FTSE 1007,548.15↑ Sell
 Hang Seng19,830.52↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,020.40↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,482.83↑ Sell
 BASF44.182Neutral
 Bayer54.05↑ Sell
 Allianz179.57Neutral
 Adidas170.65Buy
 Lufthansa6.723Neutral
 Siemens AG111.23Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG8.988↑ Buy
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,580/ 6,680
(-10/ -10) # 1,639
SJC HCM6,600/ 6,700
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SJC Hanoi6,600/ 6,702
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SJC Nhatrang6,600/ 6,702
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(-10/ -10) # 1,661
Cập nhật 16-08-2022 20:01:48
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,773.33-5.15-0.29%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V25.34025.840
RON 95-III24.66025.150
E5 RON 92-II23.72024.190
DO 0.05S22.90023.350
DO 0,001S-V24.88025.370
Dầu hỏa 2-K23.32023.780
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$88.93-1.13-1.28%
Brent$94.52-1.56-1.68%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.230,0023.540,00
EUR23.145,5524.441,71
GBP27.456,8428.627,78
JPY171,08181,12
KRW15,4318,80
Cập nhật lúc 18:54:08 16/08/2022
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