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Dollar loses steam, euro on front foot as ECB meeting looms

By Rae Wee SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar retreated further on Wednesday as the euro extended its overnight bounce on relief Europe might avoid the worst fears concerning...
Dollar loses steam, euro on front foot as ECB meeting looms © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

By Rae Wee

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar retreated further on Wednesday as the euro extended its overnight bounce on relief Europe might avoid the worst fears concerning energy shortages, and on the chance the European Central Bank may deliver a more aggressive rate hike.

Russian gas flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline are seen restarting on time on Thursday after the completion of scheduled maintenance, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

The euro tacked on 0.25% to $1.0245, having risen 0.75% the previous day, its strongest daily gain in a month.

Aiding sentiment was news that the ECB is considering raising interest rates by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points at their meeting on Thursday.

"If we do see Russian gas flows resume tomorrow, that will be good news for the euro/dollar and in the near term, euro can get a little boost and get away further from parity," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY).

"But I am still worried about the euro/dollar, I think downsides still persist ... the potential hawkish pivot from the ECB may not be able to give sustained support."

The euro has lost about 2.3% since the beginning of July, and broke parity with the dollar for the first time in two decades last week following a red-hot U.S. inflation print and fears about a sharp economic downturn in the eurozone.

Other major currencies similarly rallied on the back of the weakening greenback, and as central banks around the world become more hawkish in their efforts to tame soaring inflation.

The U.S. dollar index measure against a basket of key currencies was down 0.14% to 106.52, well off its two-decade peak of 109.29 last week.

The U.S. currency's retreat has also coincided with reduced expectations of a supersized 100-basis-point rate hike at next week's Federal Reserve policy review.

The Aussie was up 0.4% at $0.6925, after rising 1.3% overnight, also the largest in a month.

Ahead of the Fed's meeting next week, markets are pricing in a 23.2% chance of a 100 bp rate hike., with expectations of the jumbo rate increase easing after policymakers were quick to pour cold water on it.

Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) July policy meeting out the day earlier showed that the central bank sees a need for more policy tightening to curb inflation.

Earlier on Wednesday, RBA Governor Philip Lowe also suggested that rates could at least double from current low levels.

Sterling likewise advanced 0.28% to $1.2031.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Tuesday that a 50-basis-point rate hike will be "among the choices on the table" at the BoE's next meeting.

Conversely, the Japanese yen remained an outlier on Wednesday morning, and last traded 138.155 per dollar, as the Bank of Japan seems determined to stand by its dovish stance.

"Sticking to its dovish guns will entail sharpening policy trade-offs for the BOJ. The most pressing of which, is the sharp drop in the JPY; which has fallen a gut-wrenching 20-21% since the September FOMC," said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank in Singapore.

Over in the cryptoverse, Bitcoin was steady at $23,300, just off a five-week high hit the day before.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

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EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

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GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

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USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

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AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

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USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

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168.32

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EUR/CHF

0.9808

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2,295.80

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4,920.55

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5,035.69

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17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

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FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

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17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

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US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

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10,854.40

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49.155

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27.35

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 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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Cập nhật lúc 10:45:15 01/05/2024
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