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Dollar Edges Higher; Sterling Weak After GDP Fall

By Peter Nurse AiVIF.com - The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trade Friday, rebounding to a degree after a two-day selloff as weaker than expected inflation data...
Dollar Edges Higher; Sterling Weak After GDP Fall © Reuters.

By Peter Nurse

AiVIF.com - The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trade Friday, rebounding to a degree after a two-day selloff as weaker than expected inflation data prompted a rethink of the Federal Reserve’s likely tightening path.

At 02:50 ET (06:50 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher at 105.045, but still significantly lower than last Friday’s peak of 106.93.

This dollar weakness was caused by Thursday's data showing U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in July a day after the country’s consumer prices came in unchanged, suggesting that inflation pressures in the U.S. were easing.

This resulted in the markets altering their view on the Fed's super-charged tightening path, considering it more likely that the U.S. central bank will hike interest rates by 50 basis points in September, and not by the 75 bps previously expected.

However, this new position is under threat. Fed policymakers have come out in numbers to warn that the central bank will remain tough despite the slight softening in inflation numbers.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly was the latest to comment, stating on Thursday that a 50 bps interest rate hike in September "makes sense", but that she is open to a bigger rate hike if data warrants.

“It looks too early to expect a significant turn lower in core inflation (rents and wages will stay high),” said analysts at ING in a note, “meaning that core inflation could be back at the 6.5% year-on-year cycle highs as we move into the fourth quarter.”

The resurgence of the dollar has been seen most easily against the Japanese yen, with USD/JPY climbing 0.3% to 133.36 as U.S. Treasury yields bounced off their recent lows.

Elsewhere, GBP/USD fell 0.1% to 1.2203 after data showed that the U.K. economy shrank in the second quarter for the first time in five quarters, but by a fraction less than expected.

Gross domestic product fell 0.1% in the three months through June, a slightly better outcome than the 0.2% expected but a sharp drop from the 0.8% gain posted in the previous quarter.

The Bank of England last week predicted the country’s economy would fall into a prolonged recession at the end of the year, and this release opens the possibility that the recession could come sooner.

EUR/USD traded largely flat at 1.0316, with the single currency struggling to make any gains given the difficulties the Eurozone’s economy is having to battle.

“In addition to the Russian threat from energy prices, the European manufacturing industry now has to contend with drought conditions and low water levels on the Rhine,” added ING. “That will challenge coal shipments, amongst other cargoes, and is keeping European natural gas prices bid near the highs. This factor remains an outright euro negative.”

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Copper Futures

4.5305

-0.0105 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

-0.79 (-0.96%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Brent Oil Futures

85.62

-0.71 (-0.82%)

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Natural Gas Futures

1.946

-0.009 (-0.46%)

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US Coffee C Futures

213.73

-13.77 (-6.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Sell (9)

Indicators:

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Sell (10)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

-60.54 (-1.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

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Sell (7)

S&P 500

5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

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↑ Sell

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DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

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Sell (6)

FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

Summary

Sell

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Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

BASF SE NA O.N.

49.155

+0.100 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Bayer AG NA

27.35

-0.24 (-0.87%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

266.60

+0.30 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

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Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Adidas AG

226.40

-5.90 (-2.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

-0.028 (-0.42%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Siemens AG Class N

175.90

-1.74 (-0.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Deutsche Bank AG

15.010

-0.094 (-0.62%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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SJC Eximbank8,300/ 8,500
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SJC 99,99%7,370/ 7,470
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Cập nhật lúc 10:45:15 01/05/2024
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