China Loan Rate In Focus as Traders Watch for Easing Clues

19 Tháng Bảy 2021
China Loan Rate In Focus as Traders Watch for Easing Clues China Loan Rate In Focus as Traders Watch for Easing Clues

(Bloomberg) -- China’s benchmark loan rate will be in the spotlight on Tuesday, with market participants divided over the need for more easing to support growth.

The loan prime rate could be lowered for the first time since early last year as a sign of further support for China’s slowing economy, according to four analysts including Ming Ming at the country’s biggest brokerage. Four others see no change in the rate at a monthly announcement on Tuesday.

While data on Thursday allayed fears of a sharp slowdown in China’s growth, speculation persists that the central bank may unleash another round of easing after it reduced the amount of cash banks need to hold in reserve. Any move by the authorities will be parsed by investors who are seeking clues on the health of the world’s second-largest economy and its implications on demand for commodities and trade in the region.

“Banks will have more liquidity to make loans after the reserve-ratio cut, a move allowing them to ask for smaller premiums in lending and making room for a lower LPR,” said Ming, head of fixed-income research at Citic Securities Co.

However, the central bank is widely expected to refrain from flooding the market with cash after it injected just 100 billion yuan ($15.5 billion) through medium-term loans on Thursday, compared with 400 billion yuan of maturities. It also kept the borrowing cost unchanged at 2.95%. The LPR, which currently stands at 3.85%, is reported as a spread over this rate.

The LPR is seen as China’s de facto benchmark funding cost since a reform in 2019 and is released on the 20th of each month. While the rate is technically decided by a group of 18 banks, the cost is widely regarded to be an indicator for Beijing’s preference on loan rates.

Still, some analysts don’t expect the the LPR to be reduced as it would indicate a change in PBOC’s policy stance, which the central bank says remains unchanged despite its recent RRR cut.

Nathan Chow, a senior economist at DBS Bank Ltd., said the LPR won’t be lowered this year unless the economy weakens more sharply. That’s because a cut sends a stronger signal on policy loosening, which Beijing would want to avoid as it seeks to contain financial leverage, he added.

“The PBOC will wait and see how effective previous stimulus are, before it moves to more aggressive easing,” Chow said.

Here’s a look at analysts’ outlook on LPR:

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24-07-2021 12:15:32 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1773

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.1773

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.3747

-0.0016 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

USD/JPY

110.56

+0.41 (+0.38%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

AUD/USD

0.7365

-0.0013 (-0.18%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

USD/CAD

1.2560

-0.0004 (-0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

130.16

+0.53 (+0.41%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

1.0827

+0.0013 (+0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Gold Futures

1,801.90

-3.50 (-0.19%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Silver Futures

25.235

-0.146 (-0.58%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

Copper Futures

4.4553

+0.1178 (+2.72%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

72.17

+0.26 (+0.36%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

74.20

+0.41 (+0.56%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Natural Gas Futures

4.046

+0.043 (+1.07%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

US Coffee C Futures

191.88

-1.77 (-0.91%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,109.10

+50.05 (+1.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

S&P 500

4,411.80

+44.32 (+1.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

DAX

15,669.29

+154.75 (+1.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

FTSE 100

7,027.58

+59.28 (+0.85%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

27,284.87

-415.75 (-1.50%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

2,209.41

+9.94 (+0.45%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

IBEX 35

8,717.20

+95.40 (+1.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

BASF SE NA O.N.

67.030

+0.470 (+0.71%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Bayer AG NA

51.20

+0.06 (+0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

210.50

+1.78 (+0.85%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

317.70

+5.38 (+1.72%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.849

+0.105 (+1.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Siemens AG Class N

134.65

+0.49 (+0.37%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.590

+0.175 (+1.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

 EUR/USD1.1773Neutral
 GBP/USD1.3747↑ Sell
 USD/JPY110.56↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7365Buy
 USD/CAD1.2560Neutral
 EUR/JPY130.16↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0827↑ Buy
 Gold1,801.90↑ Sell
 Silver25.235↑ Sell
 Copper4.4553Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI72.17↑ Buy
 Brent Oil74.20↑ Buy
 Natural Gas4.046Neutral
 US Coffee C191.88↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,109.10↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,411.80↑ Sell
 DAX15,669.29↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,027.58Neutral
 Hang Seng27,284.87Neutral
 Small Cap 20002,209.41↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,717.20↑ Sell
 BASF67.030Neutral
 Bayer51.20↑ Buy
 Allianz210.50↑ Buy
 Adidas317.70↑ Buy
 Lufthansa9.849↑ Sell
 Siemens AG134.65↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG10.590↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank5,695/ 5,750
(0/ 0) # 744
SJC HCM5,680/ 5,745
(-5/ -5) # 728
SJC Hanoi5,680/ 5,747
(-5/ -5) # 730
SJC Danang5,680/ 5,747
(-5/ -5) # 730
SJC Nhatrang5,680/ 5,747
(-5/ -5) # 730
SJC Cantho5,680/ 5,747
(-5/ -5) # 730
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