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  4. Chance of Global Recession Seen as Coin Flip at Citi
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Chance of Global Recession Seen as Coin Flip at Citi

By Louis Juricic The chance of a global recession is nearing 50%, according to economists at Citi. The bank joins a growing chorus of analysts and pundits warning about the dire...
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Chance of Global Recession Seen as Coin Flip at Citi © Reuters. UPDATE: Chance of Global Recession Seen as Coin Flip at Citi

By Louis Juricic

The chance of a global recession is nearing 50%, according to economists at Citi. The bank joins a growing chorus of analysts and pundits warning about the dire effects tighter financial conditions could have on world economies.

In Senate testimony Wednesday, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank was not trying to provoke a recession while stressing the priority was fighting inflation. It’s a view shared by central bankers around the world.

“The global economy continues to be afflicted by severe supply shocks, which are pushing up inflation and driving down growth. But more recently, two further factors have burst onto the scene: Central banks are hiking policy rates with increasing vigor in their fight against inflation, and the global consumer’s demand for goods looks to be softening,” wrote Citi economist Nathan Sheets in a note to clients.

Sheets added, “The experience of history indicates that disinflation often carries meaningful costs for growth, and we see the aggregate probability of recession as now approaching 50%.”

The bank is seeing increased evidence of softening in the global consumers' demand for goods, and retailers are starting to complain about rising inventories, especially of consumer discretionary goods. Reports also indicate a slackening of consumer demand for smartphones and PCs.

On the bright side, container shipping costs from China have recently moved down, which hints at potentially reduced pressures on supply chains.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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