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Canadian dollar seen higher if global economy copes with COVID variants- Reuters poll

Friday, January 7, 2022
Canadian dollar seen higher if global economy copes with COVID variants- Reuters poll © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie", is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Mark Blinch

By Fergal Smith

TORONTO (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar is expected to strengthen over the coming year as global economic recovery continues from the COVID-19 crisis but gains for the currency could be kept in check by Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, a Reuters poll showed.

The median forecast in a Reuters poll was for the Canadian dollar to strengthen 1% to 1.26 per U.S. dollar, or 79.37 U.S. cents in three months, compared to 1.25 in last month's forecast.

It was then expected to climb to 1.2350 in a year's time.

"Our expectation of Canadian dollar strength over the 12-month horizon is based upon our expectation of improved global growth conditions," said Simon Harvey, Head of FX analysis for Monex Europe and Monex Canada.

Growth will pick up after the first quarter of the year "as variant risk subsides," Harvey added.

Canada is a major producer of commodities, including oil, so the loonie tends to be sensitive to the outlook for the global economy. Oil has rallied 27% since December.

Canadian provinces have announced in recent days restrictions to curb the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant, mirroring moves in some other countries.

Still, investors remain generally calm about the global economic impact of the variant after studies suggested the risk of hospitalization is lower.

Also supportive of the loonie, the Bank of Canada https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/despite-omicron-bank-canada-likely-signal-earlier-rate-hikes-possible-2021-12-17 is likely to change its interest rate guidance this month so that it has the option to raise borrowing costs earlier than planned.

Money markets expect Canada's central bank to hike five times in 2022 and that the policy rate will peak over the coming years at 2%, the so-called terminal rate.

That exceeds the 1.6% endpoint seen for the U.S. Federal Reserve but those expectations could shift.

"We still think the terminal rate in the U.S. is going to be higher," said Bipan Rai, North America head, FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets.

"Once we get more hikes priced in further out (the money market curve) for the Fed, that should translate into U.S. dollar strength."

The Canadian dollar was the only G10 currency to gain ground against the greenback in 2021, rising 0.8%.

(For other stories from the January Reuters foreign exchange poll:)

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17-01-2022 10:45:19 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1402

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EUR/USD

1.1402

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US Coffee C Futures

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Adidas AG

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 EUR/USD1.1402↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.3652↑ Buy
 USD/JPY114.60↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7215↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2505↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY130.66↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0424Buy
 Gold1,818.15↑ Sell
 Silver23.017Buy
 Copper4.4245↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI83.48↑ Buy
 Brent Oil86.24↑ Buy
 Natural Gas4.306↑ Buy
 US Coffee C239.65↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,310.05↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,662.85↑ Buy
 DAX15,952.16↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,611.52↑ Buy
 Hang Seng24,218.03↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,163.30↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,849.25Neutral
 BASF68.180Buy
 Bayer52.86↑ Buy
 Allianz226.28Buy
 Adidas252.57Sell
 Lufthansa7.218↑ Sell
 Siemens AG146.88↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG12.002Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,120/ 6,160
(0/ 0) # 1,148
SJC HCM6,110/ 6,170
(10/ 0) # 1,158
SJC Hanoi6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,160
SJC Danang6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,160
SJC Nhatrang6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,160
SJC Cantho6,110/ 6,172
(10/ 0) # 1,160
Cập nhật 17-01-2022 10:45:21
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,818.55+2.070.11%
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Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-IV2400024480
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E5 RON 92-II2291023360
DO 0.05S1838018740
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Dầu hỏa1719017530
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$83.49+0.360.43%
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$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD22.540,0022.850,00
EUR25.234,8826.649,42
GBP30.246,4531.537,99
JPY192,66203,94
KRW16,5020,10
Cập nhật lúc 18:52:49 17/01/2022
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