3M Co. Trials Point to 'Longer, More Expensive Outcome' - Morgan Stanley

3M Co. (MMM) Trials Points to 'Longer, More Expensive Outcome' - Morgan Stanley

By Sam Boughedda

On Friday, a ruling from the U.S. Bankruptcy Court refused to temporarily halt lawsuits against 3M Company (NYSE:MMM) and Aearo Technologies relating to Dual-Ended Combat Arms earplugs it sold from 2008 to 2015.

The news resulted in 3M shares tumbling 9.5%. It has fallen further during Monday's session, down 2.1% at the time of writing.

On Monday, Wolfe Research and Morgan Stanley analysts released research notes, providing their thoughts on the news:

"The ruling came down to two main factors: 1) the "uncapped, non-recourse" funding agreement from 3M to Aearo. This undermined the indemnity provided by Aearo to 3M, creating 'nothing more than a circular arrangement'; 2) Judge Graham also declined to follow precedents used in the LTL (J&J Texas Two-Step) case, due to differences in case law between the Third and Seventh Circuit," said a Wolfe Research analyst, who has an Underperform rating and $120 price target on the stock.

"The next step is the wave of 1,200 cases in active discovery, with a portion set to be remanded back to district court. The first bellwether launches soon, with four additional trials in 2023/24. Another 30 trials are in active discovery," he added. "In our opinion, litigating these cases is not an option. The headline risks alone are significant, as are legal costs at ~$4m per week."

Meanwhile, a Morgan Stanley analyst, who has an Underperform rating and $131 price target on 3M shares, said the ruling on bankruptcy for points to a longer, more expensive outcome.

"When we downgraded shares to Underweight in February, it was based on a view that even with a considerable haircut to Combat Arms awards vs. initial judgments in the bellwether trials that the implied liabilities in 3 M's valuation were implied lower than at most points in the past 4 years as PFAS became more notable," said the analyst.

"The bankruptcy filing could have reduced the punitive element and expedited the resolution, both of which would be good for the equity narrative. If the judge's ruling is not overturned, the jury trial format for all 230K cases would likely be the longer, more punitive outcome. While shares closed down ~9.5% Friday vs. the group down ~4%, we believe our liability framework looks possible at $14B for Combat Arms with potential for something higher," added the analyst.